The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shen Wan Hongyuan released a research report to explore the similarities between indium and tungsten, including: both are strategic metals with production and market advantages in China; both have important applications in the AI field; both are export control metals; Japanese companies in both downstream applications occupy important market shares; both downstream are in a critical period of rapid expansion of production capacity. Referring to the stock price trends of companies in the tungsten industry, the bank is optimistic about the subsequent performance of indium sector targets.
Shen Wan Hongyuan's main views are as follows:
Tungsten and indium are the same key mineral resources with China's advantages under the anti-globalization trend
Both tungsten and indium are metal varieties with global supply advantages in China. China ranks first in the world in terms of indium resource reserves and production. By the end of 2022, China accounted for 40.14% of the world's identifiable indium resources, and China, as the largest producer of native indium, accounts for about 60% of the world's total raw indium production all year round; China also ranks first in global tungsten resource reserves and production. China's tungsten reserves account for 53.19% of the world's total reserves, and China's tungsten production accounts for 78.82% of the world's total production.
Export control of tungsten-indium dual-use items leverages AI industry chain
At a time when China is implementing export control policies, tungsten and indium have leveraged profound changes in the global AI industry chain through their important applications in the field of AI. Since the implementation of the export control policy, the export volume of tungsten and indium has declined to a certain extent; at the application level, tungsten hexafluoride downstream of tungsten and PCB drills are all used in the AI field; in terms of indium, optical modules using indium phosphide as a raw material are becoming the main connection solution in the AI field.
Downstream processed tungsten-indium products account for a relatively high production in Japan
The global supply of tungsten hexafluoride is highly concentrated among a few producers in Japan, South Korea, and China. Japan is still one of the largest suppliers, mainly led by Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Glass. Together, these two companies account for about 20-30% of global production capacity; Japan also has a high market share in high-end bars for PCB drills; in terms of indium, indium phosphide substrate materials are still mainly supplied by Sumitomo Japan and Japan's JX. According to Yole statistics, Japan's Sumitomo's global share in 2020 was 42%, and Japan's JX global share was 13%.
Export controls to Japan give the domestic chain a good chance to overtake
According to export data from the General Administration of Customs, exports of tungsten powder (the raw material of tungsten hexafluoride) and unwrought tungsten, including simply sintered bars and rods (raw materials for PCB drills and tungsten bars) to Japan all declined markedly; on the processing side, where Japanese products have a high market share, China's export volume increased markedly.
FCC restrictions are getting tougher, and indium phosphide may have far-reaching effects
Beginning in August 2018, the FCC began restrictions on China Telecom equipment, including optical modules. As of October 19, 2026, Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng, Dongshan Precision, and Tianfu Technology were not on the list. On February 4, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced a decision to implement export control on items related to tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium, which clearly lists indium phosphide and tungsten-related items as export control items.
Localization+high demand growth, capacity expansion lays the importance of resources
The active expansion of production by enterprises in the tungsten and indium industry chain will surely cause price changes on the raw material side. As of November 2, 2026, the domestic price of tungsten powder was 790,000 yuan/ton, +150% compared with the same period last year; the domestic price of fine indium was 4,950 yuan/kg, +90.02% compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning: risk of changes in technology routes, risk of macro-event impact reduction risk, risk of changes in indium supply exceeding expectations, etc.