The Zhitong Finance App learned that after the market on November 9 EST, Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) announced the results for the third quarter of 2026 and held a conference call. What received the most attention at this conference was the delay of the first flight of the new-generation medium recyclable rocket Neutron: due to the discovery of tiny voids (voids) defects between layers of carbon fiber composites in the front dome of the first-class propellant tank, the first flight target was changed to “no earlier than 2027.”
Founder and CEO Peter Beck responded that the former dome had been manufactured and cured, that the defects had been reproduced during testing and resolved through process adjustments, and that the new launch date would be determined after the relevant tests were completed at the end of the first quarter of 2027 — “I'd rather show everyone real-time progress than give a date that may have to be taken back later”. Management also responded to concerns about delays with orders: new launch contracts of nearly 1 billion US dollars were signed in the third quarter, and all 16 launches before Neutron's first flight were scheduled, and the benchmark launch price rose to 70 million US dollars/time. Beck emphasized that “launch capacity is extremely tight, and this is exactly the situation we predicted before... We are selling at full price or even higher.”
In terms of performance, the company achieved revenue of US$267.8 million for the quarter, a year-on-year increase of 73%, a record high (record for the sixth consecutive quarter), higher than the previous guidance limit of US$250 million to US$265 million, and also higher than the agreed expectations of US$255.7 million; loss per share of $0.12, which was worse than market expectations (expected loss of about US$0.06 to 0.07 million); GAAP net loss of US$79.7 million, mainly dragged down by US$27.3 million in debt settlement losses and US$21.3 million in Iridium acquisition transaction fees (according to Zhitong Finance quoted the company as disclosed by Zhitong Finance ); The adjusted EBITDA loss was $18 million, which is on the better end of the guidance range (loss of 17 million to 23 million US dollars).
GAAP operating cash flow was $7.2 million, and the total order reserve (backlog) reached $3.57 billion, an increase of 52% over the previous year. The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of US$270 million to US$290 million (the midpoint was about 5% higher than the agreed estimate of US$266.4 million.
The financial report was released after the market. The stock price rose 10.5% to $58.65 during the regular trading session on the same day (progress in the restoration of the former Neutron dome combined with the pre-earnings layout), and fell 6.61% to $54.97 after the market.
Focus and Response: Neutron Delays and Reconfirmation of Demand and Pricing
The central focus of this conference was the reliability of the schedule and the company's growth narrative after the delay of Neutron's first flight. Beck clearly declined to give a new launch date: “I was wrong (many times)” and instead updated the progress of the tank every week, sometimes twice a day, without setting a date until the tank passed all tests. But he used demand-side evidence to respond to concerns: 8 Neutron launches were signed, with a total value of over $515 million, from 5 constellation operators. The first 16 launches have all been scheduled, and the next available launch slot has been scheduled for the 2030s; CFO Adam Spice added that the company deliberately “chose high prices and low volume” in the third quarter and rejected volume requests from low price customers — “Prices will continue to rise, and we need to keep the ammunition.” Regarding the cash flow path, SPICE stated that it is expected that EBITDA will be corrected after adjustment about 6 months after the successful first flight of Neutron. The operating cash flow will depend on Neutron fleet investment, and the timing will be even later; the cash flow will improve significantly after the Iridium acquisition is completed (Iridium's own cash flow is strong). The market is divided on the interpretation of the delay: before the results, some investors thought “the delay has been digested by the stock price,” but there are also opinions that suggest that the company's valuation was based on “a rocket that hasn't flown yet.”
Record order reserves: nearly 1 billion US dollars of new launch contracts were added in a single quarter
The total order reserve reached 3.57 billion US dollars, an increase of about 1.2 billion US dollars (+52%) over the previous month, covering 117 launches and over 55 spacecraft; of these, launches account for about 52%, space systems account for about 48%, and about 32.9% of orders over the next 12 months will be converted into revenue. A new contract of 1 billion US dollars was signed for a single quarterly launch in the third quarter: 18 HASTE sub-orbital launches were signed for the US Space Force Systems Command; 20 Electron launches were signed for long-term commercial customer Synspect; and Neutron signed 8 contracts, with a total value of over 515 million US dollars. Since the beginning of the year, space systems have signed new contracts of US$688 million, an increase of 319% over 2025, including US$470 million in a single quarter (+512% year-on-year) in the third quarter, and the space system backlog reached 1.7 billion US dollars.
Price increase: Neutron's benchmark price rises to $70 million
The Neutron benchmark launch price was raised from 55 million US dollars to 70 million US dollars. Spice clarified that “Neutron pricing is not going to reach 70 million, but has already been recorded at 70 million,” and that the baseline “logically still works”; multiple contracts include real deposits, non-options, and cancellation clauses, and “we won't fall into the trap other peers may fall into”. There is a new wave of demand on Electron's side, and “it should be expected that pricing will also rise”; HASTE's share of the backlog has risen, and its average price is naturally higher at one time. HASTE accounts for about 25% of small dedicated launches, and its share is likely to increase slightly next year.
Launch Services: Electron nears 100th launch
Electron expects the 100th launch “next week or so”, with a reliability of 96% out of 99 launches, making it the fastest commercial R&D rocket in history to reach 100 launches; on average, the production line shuts down one rocket every 8 working days, and doubling or tripling production capacity only requires copying the production line. Beck said that with the withdrawal of other rideshare (rideshare) providers, Electron has become the best alternative, and the “canary in the coal mine” signal has emerged. The Alaska launch site has two side-by-side launchers. A single launch cycle can be completed within 16 hours and 42 minutes. The first launch and multiple launches will still be carried out in 2027 as planned. In the past 12 months, the company has successfully put 12 self-built spacecraft into orbit (including 8 platforms in the Globalstar direct terminal constellation, NASA's double star Mars scientific mission, the Space Force's VICTUS Haze mission, and the ViaSAT satellite).
Iridium acquires full funding and obtains OSC low-interest loan
The Iridium acquisition was fully funded through ATM, which was completed in the third quarter (issuing 36.8 million shares, with total revenue of about US$2.4 billion), thereby terminating the US$3.6 billion bridge financing commitment; the lender has approved the retention of the Iridium credit line after delivery, Iridium shareholders voted overwhelmingly in favor of it, and the transaction is entering the regulatory approval stage. Furthermore, during the conference call, Spice confirmed that the company received a loan commitment of approximately US$150 million from the US Office of Strategic Capital (OSC). The terms are “very attractive — about SOFR plus 100 basis points”, which are non-diluting financing to accelerate the expansion of businesses such as Neutron. Regarding the risk of a government shutdown (ongoing resolution CR), Beck said that most of the projects under development have received funding and are strategically significant, and “the risk is relatively low for us”.
Q4 Guidance: Revenue hits another record, cash flow will still be under pressure
The company guides fourth-quarter revenue of US$270 million to US$290 million (+55.9% YoY, +4.5% month-on-month), GAAP gross margin of 34% — 36%, non-GAAP gross margin of 39% — 41%, GAAP operating expenses of US$162 million to US$168 million, non-GAAP US$136 million to US$142 million, net interest income of US$45 million, adjusted EBITDA loss of US$14 million to US$20 million, basic weighted average number of shares of approximately 681 million shares. Free cash flow is expected to remain negative and at a high level due to continued investment in Neutron development and capacity expansion; capital expenditure for the quarter was US$31.1 million, including investment in Neutron recycling barges and testing infrastructure.
Full Meeting Minutes
I. Executive speeches
Sir Peter Beck (Founder, President and CEO): Third-quarter revenue of $268 million, up 73% year over year, up $34 million month-on-month, setting a record for the sixth consecutive quarter. The total order reserve is US$3.57 billion, covering 117 launches and more than 55 spacecraft. Six years ago, our revenue for the full year of 2020 was only US$35.2 million — less than 4% of this year's guideline (close to US$1 billion); our gross margin in 2020 was negative. This year, GAAP gross margin is expected to be in the 35% range, and non-GAAP gross margin is expected to exceed 40%, an increase of more than 69 percentage points over 2020.
Space systems: $688 million in new contracts have been signed since the beginning of the year, an increase of 319% over 2025; 470 million US dollars of new contracts were signed in the third quarter, an increase of 512% over the previous year; the backlog of space systems was 1.7 billion US dollars, accounting for 48% of the total backlog. Over the past 12 months, 12 Rocket Lab-built spacecraft have been successfully launched into orbit and put into operation, including missions from NASA, the Space Force, and major constellation operators.
Launch orders: The launch contract alone exceeded 1 billion US dollars in the third quarter — 18 HASTE launches were signed for the Space Force Systems Command and 20 Electron launches were signed for long-term customer Synspective. Neutron has signed 8 contracts with a total value of about US$515 million, and many contracts were signed at the revised benchmark price of US$70 million.” Demand is a function of tightening global launch capacity and the confidence of our customers.”
Iridium acquisition: The transaction has been fully funded (ATM issuance completed in the third quarter), the Iridium credit line has been approved by the lender, and Iridium shareholders voted overwhelmingly in favor; it is entering the regulatory approval stage, and the settlement can be completed without additional financing. The company terminology has been updated from “Space Applications” to reflect the end-to-end service positioning.
Electron is about to usher in its 100th launch (expected next week or so), and will be the fastest commercially developed rocket in history to reach 100 launches; the reliability is 96% in 99 launches. On average, the production line closes a rocket every 8 working days.
Neutron: The first flight was delayed because voids (voids) defects were discovered in the front dome of the propellant tank. The automatic fiber placement (AFP) machine has laminated the new front dome and finished curing, with good results; the middle section is stacked, the front and rear components are then tested for hydrostatic pressure, and then shipped to Launch Complex 3 for low temperature testing and final assembly. Neutron Level 2 has arrived at LC-3, and pre-test activities have been completed. Low-temperature verification tests will be carried out, no engine wet dress (wet dress) will be carried out, and then the engine will be installed for static ignition. The thrust module (thrust module) was delivered from the Maryland factory to the Volops Island launcher within 48 hours to test the clamping and release system, quick disconnection of the interface, etc.; the Neutron design does not have a launch tower (strongback), and the thrust module is the only physical interface between the rocket and the launcher. The Archimedes engine has completed cold box testing (cold box testing) of the second-stage vacuum type, and proceeded with the qualification (qual) process to provide confidence in the reliability of the flight inspection engine after multiple ignition; we are exploring how to speed up the Archimedes production capacity climb after the first flight.” Launch capacity is extremely tight, and this is exactly what we had predicted... We are selling at full price or even higher.” Adam Spice (Chief Financial Officer): Revenue of $267.8 million, up 73% year over year and 14.4% month on month. By segment, space systems revenue was US$214.8 million, up 13.3% month-on-month; launch service revenue was US$53.1 million, up 19% month-on-month, mainly due to an increase in the number of Electron launches. GAAP gross margin 33.6% (guideline 29% — 31%), non-GAAP gross margin 38.4% (guideline 35% — 37%). The month-on-month decline in gross margin was mainly due to Mynaric's first full quarter consolidation and no-tariff refunds for the previous quarter; rising profits in the component business (Solaero, GEOST optical systems) were partially offset by favorable factors in the launch business. It will take Mynaric a few quarters to reach its target gross margin.
GAAP operating expenses of US$169.3 million were higher than the guidelines (US$143 million to US$149 million), including Iridium transaction costs and $9.4 million Term Loan B change of control fees; non-GAAP operating expenses of US$130.2 million were slightly higher than the guidelines. GAAP lost $0.12 per share (loss of $0.08 in the second quarter). GAAP operating cash flow was positive at $7.2 million (negative $84.1 million in the second quarter), mainly due to increased satellite project milestone payments; non-GAAP free cash flow was negative $23.9 million (negative $111 million in the second quarter). The adjusted EBITDA lost $18 million, which is at the lower end of the guidance range (loss of 17 million to 23 million US dollars). Capital expenditure of US$31.1 million, including investment in Neutron recycling barges and test infrastructure. R&D expenses increased month-on-month (GAAP +16 million US dollars, non-GAAP + 17.2 million US dollars), mainly due to Neutron's first flight engine and carbon composite development; forward loss reserves (forward loss reserves) were recorded for Neutron's second flight (Flight II). GAAP SG &; A increased of 11.2 million dollars month-on-month mainly due to Iridium transaction fees; non-GAAP SG&;; A decreased by 2.8 million US dollars month-on-month due to initial synergy of Mynaric costs. Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were approximately US$4.45 billion.
Order reserve: Total backlog of US$3.57 billion, up 52% month-on-month (about US$2.4 billion at the end of the second quarter); about 32.9% of orders over the next 12 months will be converted into revenue; the convertible backlog will increase 47% month-on-month in the next 12 months, mainly due to large Electron/HASTE contracts. ATM issued a total revenue of about US$2.4 billion (36.8 million shares). Together with Iridium's revised term loans, it can fully cover Iridium's cash consideration, and the US$3.6 billion bridge financing commitment has been terminated. In terms of employees: 1,728 production-related personnel (+40 compared to the previous month), 1,084 R&D personnel (-3), SG&;; A 447 people (+5), for a total of 3,259 people.
Q4 guidance: Revenue of US$270 million to US$290 million (approximately +56% year over year, +4.5% month-on-month); GAAP gross margin of 34% — 36%, non-GAAP 39% — 41%; GAAP operating expenses of US$162 million to US$168 million, non-GAAP US$136 million to US$142 million; net interest income of US$45 million; adjusted EBITDA loss of US$14 million to US$20 million; basic weighted average shares of approximately 681 million shares (including approximately 41 million A-series preferred shares). Q4 launch revenue is expected to increase (both immediate confirmation and deferred confirmation increase), and the Solaero and satellite platform business in space systems is expected to decline. Free cash flow is expected to remain negative and high due to Neutron development and capacity expansion.
II. Q&A session
Andres Shepard (Cantor Fitzgerald): After Neutron was postponed, how did it go on the path to 10 launches a year? How fast and how long? Will Electron/Haste increase in price next year?
Sir Peter Beck: We've been re-examining the pace of climbing the hill 1, 3, and 5 times; a lot of back-office work was done during the delay to increase the speed. “I don't think we're ready to revise these numbers yet.”
Adam Spice: To clarify, “Neutron's pricing isn't going to go to 70 million, it's already 70 million” — it's already recorded at $70 million, and the baseline “logically still works”. Electron has seen a new wave of demand, and “pricing should be expected to rise”; HASTE's share of the backlog has increased, and its ASP is naturally higher. Price increases for full-line launch services will be reflected in the model.
Edison Yu (Deutsche Bank Research Division): What do you think of orbital data centers?
Sir Peter Beck: I've always had a “healthy scepticism”, but I'm optimistic about defense orbital data centers; we've developed silicon valves for rail data centers, and have a Neutron rail data center customer, and don't rule out the opportunity. Regarding the bottleneck: “It's economical for me” — major technological breakthroughs are needed to establish economics; small, defense-level ones can be done, but moving all data centers into space still faces challenges.
John Godden (Citi Research): Electron's outlook for years to come? What is the supply chain situation?
Sir Peter Beck: Electron cannot be reused. The key to a high pace is reusability (meaning production line reuse); according to the current production line “once every 8 days,” doubling or tripling the production line only requires copying. Next year is Electron's big year, and the launch list is huge; as other ride-sharing launch providers quit, Electron is the best alternative. Supply chain aspect: Due to high vertical integration, the main focus is on raw materials and key minerals rather than specific components.
Jan Angelbrecht (Baird): How confident are customers? What do you think of the increase in launches in 2027?
Sir Peter Beck: Only two commercial companies, SpaceX and Rocket Lab, were able to develop rockets and successfully scale them; customers visited the factory and launch site, and “no one bought a rocket with a brochure”.
Adam Spice: The CAGR of about 20% of the launch business is “not very risky”. Next year's growth is likely to be better than 2025 to 2026; the risk comes more from delays in customer payload delivery; and a strong backlog allows tasks to be exchanged to maintain the pace.
Andrew Steiner (Acting Ronald Epstein, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research): Launch capacity and cash flow path?
Sir Peter Beck: Launch capacity is “constrained” (extremely tight demand); “We want everyone to succeed” — because even if Neutron goes live, it can't meet demand; reaffirms the idea that 50% capacity is reserved for personal use and 50% is given to customers.
Adam Spice: Electron's price increase is helpful with Neutron's deposit, but cash flow will not be permanently realized before Neutron enters mass production; it is expected that adjusted EBITDA will be corrected about 6 months after Neutron's first flight (correction explanation: operating cash flow depends on Neutron fleet investment, even later); Iridium will change significantly after delivery — Iridium's own cash flow is strong.
Trevor Walsh (Citizens): What's happening during the Neutron extension? R&D and EBITDA prospects?
Sir Peter Beck: The extension time was used to increase the pace of launch — engine production, acceptance tests, composite structure production and acceptance tests are progressing in parallel; avionics and fluid systems have not stopped.” Currently, the pressure to improve (1-3-5 rhythm) is overwhelming.”
Adam Spice: Space systems are not an R&D-intensive business; the long-term CAGR target is about 20%; the launch business will be faster (after Neutron is added); adjusted EBITDA will be corrected within about 6 months after the first flight is successful, and cash flow will follow; reusability will release profit margins and cash flow after the initial maximum fleet size is established; Iridium has a “growth vector” that it has invested in recent years.
Christine Leweg (Morgan Stanley Research): Neutron's unit economy? Is the spectrum (L-band) sufficient?
Adam Spice: ASP raised the break-even path; strongly believes that Neutron is a business with a “non-GAAP gross margin of 50% or more”; the key is not BOM decline (6% — 10% annualized), but the dilution of fixed costs over more launches; the pricing curve is “very early” and has not yet reached the end.
Sir Peter Beck: BOM accounts for a small proportion, and the real costs are in facilities, personnel, and management costs (factory, launch site, barge). Spectrum aspect: “We are very satisfied with the L band” and are optimistic about its ability to penetrate severe weather and security/critical defense markets; there are currently spectrum-related arrangements in the communications business, but “there are definitely no upcoming additional spectrum acquisitions”.
Gautam Khanna (TD Securities): Neutron's Demand and Booking Strategy?
Sir Peter Beck: Demand is extremely strong; customers “finalize intentions very quickly”, as early as the 2030s; 50% of capacity is reserved for personal use — testing new technology and risk avoidance at low cost; the Iridium constellation needs to be upgraded in the future, and Neutron is a key enabler; 50/50 is a long-term vision, “not from the beginning”.
Adam Spice: Speaking of “internal news” — more Neutron launches could have been signed in the third quarter, but the company chose a higher price and lower volume; it refused to release the quantity to low-priced customers because “the price will continue to rise” and “dry powder” (ammunition) must be kept.
Andre Madrid (BTIG): Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) Loans and the Impact of Continuing Government Resolutions (CR)?
Adam Spice: Confirmed the OSC loan promise of approximately US$150 million (just announced during the call). The terms are “very attractive — approximately SOFR plus 100 basis points”. It is non-diluting financing to accelerate the expansion of Neutron and other businesses; this shows the importance the government attaches to launch capacity issues. About CR: Most of the ongoing research projects have received funding, are strategically important, and have low risk.
Sir Peter Beck: “The risk is relatively low for us.”
Daniel (Jeff Van Re, Craig-Hallum): Backlog in the next 12 months and opportunities for space systems?
Adam Spice: The backlog over the next 12 months will increase 47% month-on-month, mainly due to large Electron/HASTE contracts; the non-HAST side will take on the demand (“canary in the coal mine”) due to the lack of future Transporter/Bandwagon ride-sharing missions; large space system platform orders are “lumpy” (lumpy), and no large-scale platform projects have been recorded this season. The impact of space investment by other sovereign countries has yet to be seen — probably the next signal of demand; the current backlog is dominated by the US (SDA Tranche 2/3, AMTI, etc.).
Sir Peter Beck: The space system has entered a mature state of operation (“humming”), and components “already on the shelf” can be quickly integrated; two trans-Mars injection burns (Trans-Mars injection burns) have just been completed. Michael Lishock (KeyBanc): Neutron Private Launch and Alaska Launch Site?
Sir Peter Beck: The benefits of self-use launches are to verify new technology and avoid risks at low cost; the Iridium constellation needs to be updated in the future; Neutron is a key enabling tool; 50/50 is a long-term vision. The Alaska launch site has two launchers side by side; it can complete a launch cycle within 16 hours and 42 minutes; the first launch and multiple launches will still be achieved in 2027 as planned.
Eric Rasmussen (Stifel): Growth opportunities for Iridium? What is the composition of the 2027 launch?
Sir Peter Beck: Iridium's work on PNT (positioning, navigation, and timing) and direct-to-device (direct-to-device) “progresses faster with greater freedom” under the Rocket Lab framework.
Adam Spice: No guidance for 2027 is provided, but HASTE accounts for about 25% of small dedicated launches, which may be slightly more next year.
Anthony Valentini (Barclays): Neutron's internal target date? Will they build bigger rockets?
Sir Peter Beck: No date is provided, “I missed it (many times)”, and the progress of the tank is updated weekly (sometimes twice a day); no date is set until the tank has passed all tests. Regarding the bigger rocket: “I don't want to build another rocket. I think two would be enough for anyone.” The average payload of Falcon 9's commercial mission (with the exception of Starlink) is about 5 tons; Neutron is rated at 13 tons to support manned space; the key indicator is “cost per satellite put into orbit” rather than per kilogram; Neutron is “large enough” for existing targets. Admit to having said not to make bigger rockets — “never say no”.
Suji DaSilva (Roth Capital): Booking limit? What is the mass production capacity of satellite manufacturing?
Adam Spice: We haven't come across an offer that would allow the company to relinquish capacity; “We're testing the elasticity of the market right now.”
Sir Peter Beck: A large number of space systems business units are already mass-produced (the world's largest space-grade solar cell manufacturer); manufactured for high-volume satellites through the Flaxite platform, including the US government contract to participate in the Starshield Program as Vendor B.
Ryan Koontz (Needham): What are the terms and binding force of the Neutron contract?
Sir Peter Beck: These contracts are not “janky contracts” (unreliable contracts). The customer has done a great deal of due diligence, and the company's development process is transparent.
Adam Spice: Neutron subscribes to a standard launch service agreement (LSA) similar to Electron — with a real deposit, no options, and cancellation fees; “We won't fall into the trap other peers might fall into”.