DHL AG (ETR:DHL) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. DHL beat revenue expectations by 3.4%, at €23b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at €0.81, some 7.5% short of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following the latest results, DHL's 17 analysts are now forecasting revenues of €92.4b in 2027. This would be an okay 4.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 14% to €3.89. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €91.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.86 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
See our latest analysis for DHL
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €58.85. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on DHL, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €70.00 and the most bearish at €45.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that DHL is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 3.9% annualised growth until the end of 2027. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.6% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 1.2% annually. Not only are DHL's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €58.85, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for DHL going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for DHL you should be aware of.
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