Zhitong Finance App learned that the Citigroup research team participated in the 2026 Fall Beer Industry Seminar hosted by “Beer Marketer's Insights” (BMI) in New York, along with Nick Fink, CEO of STZ.US (STZ.US), Jeff Long, Chief Strategy and Capability Officer of TAP.US (TAP.US), Bill Shufelt, co-founder and CEO of Athletic Brewing, and other industry executives and distributors Communicate. The core conclusion is that the decline in US beer sales will not bottom out in 2026.
Market: Five years of continuous decline, not just a cyclical issue
In the first nine months of 2026, US beer industry shipments fell 3.9% year on year, the fifth consecutive year of decline. At the current pace, cumulative sales volume in 2026 will drop by about 18% compared to 2021, and shipments will fall below 1980 levels.
The segmentation level is even more alarming: sales of imported beer and flavored malt drinks (FMB) declined for the second year in a row in the first nine months of 2026 — these two categories were the industry's main growth engines over the past few years. Growth was achieved in only three sub-categories: ultra-premium beer, alcoholic cider, and non-alcoholic beer.
Sales of on-premise (on-premise) beer fell 1.4% in the first nine months, performing better than non-ready-to-drink channels; when included in ready-to-drink pre-mix (RTD), it remained roughly flat compared to the previous year. In terms of price, the CPI of beer increased by 2.2% during the year, which is more than a percentage point lower than overall inflation; the CPI of spirits only increased by 0.3%, while wine fell by 1%.
The fiercest debate at the conference was whether the decline in the industry was cyclical or structural. Business executives emphasized cyclical factors — economic pressure on consumers and changes in immigration policies impacting Hispanics; however, participants also acknowledged that structural factors are also at play: younger consumers drink less alcohol, negative feelings about alcohol, health and fitness trends, marijuana, and GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
Who's Growing: The Return of Traditional Lager
In the first nine months, sales of four of the five major manufacturers declined: Bud.US (BUD.US), which has the largest share, fell 3.1%, but outperformed the industry. Moku Liquor fell 5.1%, and Constellation Brands grew 2.9%, the only positive grower among the five. Mark Anthony fell 0.5%, and Boston Beer (SAM.US) fell 11.3%.
In terms of dollar sales growth, the four fastest-growing brand families are all traditional lagers: Michelo (+6.2%), Pacifico (+24.8%), Busch (+5.0%), and Modelo (Modelo, +1.7%). By vendor, the fastest growing brands are Constellation brands, Mark Anthony, Kirin-Lion (Kirin-Lion), Diageo, and Geloso. Furthermore, RTD, which is based on spirits, already accounts for about 4.3% of the “beer+RTD” ready-to-drink channel, and its importance is still rising.
Constellation brand: Spanish-speaking customer base under pressure, Corona and Modelo seek growth
Fink acknowledged that inflation and oil prices are putting pressure on Spanish-speaking consumers, and that this customer base accounts for about 30% to 40% of the company's total sales; but he is still optimistic about long-term opportunities — the customer group's purchasing power is expected to increase from around $3.6 trillion now to around $4.4 trillion in 2029.
The company's focus is on getting Modelo Special (Modelo Special) and Corona Extra (Corona Extra) back to sales growth: after investing more in key markets such as New York and Miami and doing more accurate marketing, Corona's share decline is close to flat. However, Fink called this only a “gentle sprout,” and acknowledged that in the context of the overall decline in the industry, stabilized share did not equal an increase in dealer shipments. As for Pacifico (Pacifico), he is optimistic about its lifestyle positioning and distribution space.
In terms of innovation, the company favors “transforming existing consumer behavior into convenience products”: the high-alcohol Modero Chelada Suprema has good feedback and is seeking to expand sales; the recently purchased vodka base RTD SpikeDade has begun to enter new markets, and can use its own distribution network to supplement sales and awareness. Mergers and acquisitions reaffirm capital discipline.
Regionally, California relies on continued growth in scale, New York competes for share, and Central China relies on college football to expand awareness; ready-to-drink channels are seen as an opportunity due to insufficient coverage compared to peers. Pricing remains in the regular range of 1% to 2% per year, deviates from the lower limit this year, and emphasizes the need to be sensitive to consumption conditions as we enter the 2028 fiscal year; the repricing of Corona Premier and Modero Oro is aimed at aligning the competitive range.
Moku Wines: Horizon 2030 bets on localized execution
Jeff Long introduced the Horizon 2030 Strategy: Relying on consumer insight and data for more accurate local marketing in a context where young consumers are still drinking beer but the frequency of drinking is declining; allocating incremental investment to core, growth, and value brands according to strategic roles. The three accelerated growth focuses are Monaco (acquired in April this year), Fever-Tree (Fever-Tree), and Coors Banquet (Coors Banquet), while maintaining the competitiveness of Coors Light (Coors Light) and Miller Lite (Miller Lite) — the former launched a national marketing platform, while the latter used the “Legendary Moments” platform for localized marketing, including sports. Coors Banquets has continued to grow its share for 21 consecutive quarters, and is prominent among Gen Z and Spanish-speaking consumers.
In terms of pricing, the company admits that the promotion of ultra-high-end beer is intense, that there is tension between consumer demand value and cost pressure, and pricing is determined one by one according to the market. Mergers and acquisitions focus on brands that are sustainable, scalable, cover specific scenarios, and bring incremental value to dealers; for the vodka-lemonade category, they prefer to use “sessionable” (sessionable) RTDs to frame opportunities. Monaco focuses on a small number of markets, focusing on convenience stores and single packs, and is seen as an opportunity for regional expansion; less than half of consumers in the Fenweishu sector can name the brand. On the alcohol-free side, Coors 0.0 will be available nationwide next year.
Alcohol-free beer: the only confirmed long runway, but growth is highly concentrated
Athletic Brewing's Bill Shufelt and Garage Beer's Andy Sauer discuss opportunities for non-alcoholic beer in the US: the category is still growing in double digits, but brands are changing drastically, and only five brands contributed about 98% of the category growth. Management believes that in the long run, non-alcoholic beer may account for more than 20% of the US beer structure, and may even bring back some consumers to low-alcohol beer.
Scan data: Improved at the beginning of the year, then decelerated again after 4 months
According to Nielsen's weekly scan, sales and sales in the beer category improved to -1.1% and -2.6% in the first quarter of 2026 (-2.9% and -4.4% in 2025), but decelerated again in April, to -4.3% and -5.6% since April 18. Since the fourth quarter (4 weeks ending October 17), category sales have been -1.9%, sales volume -3.7%, and average price +1.9%.
At the manufacturer level, sales trends from the fourth quarter to now have improved compared to the third quarter: Constellation Brand -0.3% (-1.7% in the third quarter), Moku Liquor -6.0% (-7.7%), and Budweiser InBev -4.0% (-4.9%). In terms of share, Modero Premium's dollar share in the past 6 months was +10 basis points year over year, comparable to the previous 6 months; Corona Premium - 10 basis points (first 6 months - 15 basis points); Silver Bullet - 15 basis points; and Miller Light Beer - 20 basis points for both periods. Michelob Ultra (Michelob Ultra) is the brand that has increased the most share of large domestic light beers in the past 12 months, with +55 and +50 basis points in the past 6 months, respectively.