The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley released a research report saying that COSCO HNA (01138) plans to build 10 very large tankers (VLCCs), with a total cost of about 9.5 billion yuan, and rent 14 additional ships using bareboat leasing. The total rent limit is 17.4 billion yuan. The rental period is not more than 20 years. It is expected to be delivered from 2029 to 2030, and indicates that the new shipbuilding price is lower than the market price quoted by Clarksons; the bank gave COSCO Marine an “additional holding” rating, with a target price of HK$28.4 billion.

The bank pointed out that although the bareboat leasing price is higher than the break-even point of CSE's current fleet, it seems reasonable in the current market. Free Cash Flow (FCF) can fully cover the initial payment, and it is not thought that the cycle will peak at the end of 2027 or 2028; the new ship delivery schedule is scheduled from 2029 to 2030, which has limited impact on the near future.

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