According to Woofun AI, the crypto market experienced a sharp reversal in sentiment, spurred by news of the midterm elections on November 4. Bitcoin quickly declined after surging by 3.92% in a single day, while HYPE's weekly decline reached 15.19%. The market focus changed to the verification of trends by the “52-week EMA confirmation method”, wave theory, and the “power band” quantitative model.
The core of the investigation of Bitcoin's weekly trend is the verification of the three principles of the “52-Week Moving Average Confirmation Method.” Since the weekly closing on September 14, the currency price has successfully broken through for eight consecutive weeks and reached the 52-week EMA. This performance has basically satisfied the “price breakthrough principle” in quantitative rules.
However, a breakthrough is only the first step; subsequent confirmation of a pullback and a change in the EMA pattern are even more critical. The price of the coin hit a high of $87,399 on September 21, then recorded a weekly closing high of $86,515 on October 4. Since then, the market has continued to fall from its high point, and the operation stepped back to confirm the trend. It has now taken five weeks. The current 52-week EMA is around $76,110, and the direction is still downward, while last week's closing price was around $74,900, closing near the 52-week EMA. Based on this, the “price breakthrough principle” has been satisfied, indicating that the market is in a transition phase from a “bear market” to a “bull market,” but the transition is not tantamount to confirmation.
By the close of last week, although the price of the coin had stepped back near the 52-week EMA, no confirmation signal had been sent, and the 52-week EMA was still in a downward phase and had not yet entered the “flattening phase” required by quantitative rules. Therefore, the current round of rebound, which began at a low of $57,820 on July 1, should still be defined as an overrun rebound; this is not enough to confirm the establishment of a bull market. The key verification points for the future market are whether the price can gain support and stabilize upward near the 52-week EMA (currently around $76,110), and when the slope of the 52-week EMA changes from downward to flat or even upward, which is the ultimate key to confirming the bull market.
At the daily level, Bitcoin's trend structure was significantly disturbed by the news. On November 4, news of the midterm elections stimulated a sharp rise in coin prices of 3.92%, reaching 7.1%, reaching 80,000 US dollars on the same day; just one day later, the sharp drop in US stocks dragged down 5.48%, an amplitude of about 7.01%. The intraday low since the September 21 adjustment reached an intraday low of about 75,222 US dollars, and the panic index (VIX) once approached 25.
Despite news disturbances that caused the currency price to pierce the $75,000 support, the currency price closed around $75,000 last week, indicating that the position was strong enough to take over the market, and verified the previous weekly review's prediction that “the end of the daily adjustment I wave around $75,000 is also a probable event.”
From a structural point of view, the price of the currency still runs along the original downward channel. The lower track of this channel is connected by the two low points of September 24 and October 8, and the upper track is a parallel line based on the October 5 high. After experiencing severe shocks last week, the price still falls within the channel, and the short-term trend has not deviated.
However, the price of the currency has fallen below the support of the intersection (about $77,200) formed by two important moving averages (white line and red line), but currently the price is still running along the red moving average, and the “restraining force” of breaking away from this moving average has not been completed. Based on the five waves of gains in the previous period, the three golden points for this round of correction are: $76,130 (0.382), $72,610 (0.5), and $69,120 (0.618). The current currency price has not effectively fallen below $76,130, and the second ($72,610) support below is even stronger. As long as there is no new negative external news this week, the price of the currency is expected to fluctuate to absorb the selling pressure of November 5 and gradually move into a phase of refining. The current round of adjustments has continued for 48 trading days, and the time and space dimensions are basically in place. Since the first wave of adjustments started at $87,399 on September 21, the biggest drop in the range is 15.9%. The rebound for the second wave may be late, but it will not be absent.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the “Momentum Streamer” quantitative model dates back nearly nine years of historical data and is based on probabilistic statistics: when the price effectively stands on the streamer and the streamer turns yellow, it is determined to be a bullish market, and the operation mainly focuses on going long on the low; when the streamer turns gray, it is judged to be a short market, and the operation mainly focuses on shorting at high prices. Current signals indicate that Bitcoin's bullish pattern continues. In this week's market forecast, the core view is to focus on the competition between multiple and empty skies over the “streamer of power.”
The core pressure level is divided into three areas: the first pressure zone of 76,500 to 78,500 dollars (important point in the early period), the second pressure zone around $82,000 (important point in the early period), and the third pressure zone of 85,000 to 87,500 dollars (important point in the early period). The core support level is also divided into two regions: the first support level in the 72,500-73,500 dollar area (important early support level), and the second support level in the $69,100-70,000 area (important early support level).
In terms of mid-line strategy, after interpreting last week's market situation, the current currency price has fallen below the “position monitoring channel”, but the confirmation of the effective draw has not yet been completed. Until the signal is confirmed, the main focus is on watching short positions, and no directional intervention will be made for the time being. The short-term strategy uses a 30% position, sets a stop-loss point, finds “spread” opportunities based on support and pressure levels, and uses 30 minutes/60 minutes as the operating cycle. Specifically, in short-term operations, combined with analysis of the current trend structure, this week's strategy is mainly to “go long on dips”. If the adjustment to the 72,500-73,500 US dollar area shows a clear pattern of stopping falling and stabilizing, and the quantitative model simultaneously sends a bottom signal, it is possible to establish a long position with a light position, control the position within 30%, and set an initial stop loss level. When the rebound is close to an important pressure level and combined with model signals, positions can be closed in batches and settled profitably.
HYPE's daily structure was also affected by external shocks. Last week, due to the spillover impact of a sharp systemic decline in US stocks, HYPE weekly closed a large negative line with a 15.19% decline and closed at around $74.5 (that is, the first line of the $75 mark). Its entity completely covered the positive line of 15.16% increase last week, forming a typical “yin, and yang” engulfing pattern. What needs to be clarified is that the driving force behind this decline is external, not the deterioration of HYPE's own fundamentals, which provides a basis for the subsequent determination of the “effectiveness of support levels”. If the support is effective, it is a repair after a mistaken kill; if the support falls, it is necessary to re-evaluate the outcome of the original trend.
HYPE's three-line support system includes potential streamers, lower box edges, and long-term upward trend lines. Since the HYPE price successfully climbed onto the bandwagon on March 14, the streamer has remained yellow for nearly 240 trading days, indicating that the market has been in a bullish market for a long time, and the general direction has not been disrupted. Currently, the streamer is about $74.05 on the upper track and about $71 on the lower track, and the overall slope is still upward. Currently, the price has fallen back to near the upper track of the streamer. If the decline stops and stabilizes here, the bullish trend will continue; if it effectively falls below and the streamer turns gray, then the market may change between long and short.
Furthermore, after breaking through the previous high of $76 on August 21, the price fluctuated in a wide box, about $98 on the upper edge and about $75 on the lower edge. It is worth noting that on October 24, the price fell back on the lower edge of the box, which triggered a round of rebound with a 20% increase, proving that the lower track had strong buying acceptance. Finally, since starting the rise at a low of $20.14 on January 21, HYPE has been running along a long-term upward trend line, which consists of a starting point connected to several significant lows. It is the “bottom line” of the bullish trend and is currently around $68.
HYPE's market forecast and operation strategy for this week closely revolve around this three-tier support. The core pressure level is divided into three areas: the first pressure level is in the 82.5-85 dollar area, the second pressure level is in the 88-89 dollar area, and the third pressure level is in the 95-98 dollar area. The core support level is also divided into three levels: the first support level is in the 74-75 dollar area (upper streamer rail+lower edge of the box), the second support level is around $71 (lower streamer), and the third support level is around $68 (long-term trend line). The central point of view this week is to focus on whether the price can stop falling and stabilize near the support level. The short-term operation strategy is divided into two types of plans: first, if the price stops falling and stabilizes and continues to rise in the 74-75 dollar area, short positions can consider testing light positions, keeping positions within 30%, and setting stop losses and strict execution; second, if the price continues to adjust to the 68-71 dollar area to stabilize the decline, short positions can consider testing light positions, control positions within 30%, set stop losses, and strictly implement them. Both plans emphasize the principle of light position intervention after key support levels have stabilized, as well as strict position control and stop-loss discipline.
In terms of general risk control discipline, dynamic stop-loss movement rules are the key to protecting principal and locking in profits. An initial stop loss level must be set immediately when opening a position. When profit reaches 1%, the stop loss level is moved to the cost price of opening a position (break-even point) to ensure the safety of the principal amount. When the profit reaches 2%, the stop loss position is moved to the profit position of 1%. Since then, for every additional 1% profit in the currency price, the stop-loss level moves by 1% simultaneously, locking in profits through dynamic protection.
This rule applies to all trading instruments and aims to reduce emotional distractions and ensure the enforcement of trading discipline through mechanized stop-loss adjustments.
The financial market is changing rapidly, and all market analysis and trading strategies need to be adjusted dynamically. The market is risky, so you need to be careful when investing; don't make decisions based on this. Investors should independently judge and make investment decisions based on their own risk tolerance.