The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Association, published an article stating that against the backdrop of heavy pressure on the auto market and the year-on-year decline in retail sales in October 2026, strong export performance became a key variable supporting the sales volume of car companies, and the export structure showed obvious characteristics of “medium to low price mainstream models”, which directly contributed to mainstream independent brands performing more prominently in performance differentiation. Specifically, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 928,000 units in October, an increase of 69% over the previous year, and exports accounted for 35% of the manufacturer's sales volume (19% last year).
Among them, 582,000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 145%. A00+A0 class pure electric vehicles accounted for 56% of pure electric exports. Since export models are mainly mainstream models at medium to low prices, independent brands (such as BYD (01211), Chery (09973), and Geely (00175)), which focus on cost performance and scale advantages, are more resilient in sales, driven by exports, while car companies that rely on high-end or pure fuel models are under greater pressure. This reflects the core logic of the current car market: under the pattern of “domestic stock game, overseas incremental breakthroughs,” the structural dividends of exports are reshaping the competitive position of independent brands.
The most prominent characteristic of the October car market is that the “peak season is not strong”, and the traditional “Silver Ten” is seriously underdeveloped. Due to the long sales period during the Mid-Autumn Festival in September and October, the performance was better than in September. Revenue dropped after the fall harvest and the weather became colder, so demand for cars should be highlighted, but the purchasing performance of first-time buyers supporting the growth of the autumn/winter car market this year is poor. The slump in the A00 and A class markets indicates that the recent policies in the car market have mainly supported consumption upgrades, and the increase in the subsidy threshold has somewhat suppressed the car purchase demand of people without cars. The fuel vehicle market has been lacking in new products for a long time, and usage costs are rising, which is not conducive to the full release of the purchasing power of first-time buyers.
1. Passenger car retail trends in the narrow sense of the word in recent years
The national passenger car market retailed 1.64 million vehicles in October, and continued to grow at a low level in August-October, but not higher than retail sales in March. There are many reasons for the low sales volume in October, mainly due to high oil prices. The underlying reason is low consumption capacity and desire.
In October 2026, the national passenger car market retailed 1.643 million vehicles, down 27% year on year, up 1% month on month; from January to October, the total retail sales of passenger cars was 16.62 million units, down 23% year on year.
In October 2026, the domestic passenger car market showed a trend of continuous total pressure, month-on-month strengthening, and extreme structural differentiation.
2. Passenger car wholesale trends in the narrow sense of the word in recent years
Passenger car manufacturers across the country wholesale 2.63 million vehicles in October, a significant decline over the same period. The trend in October of previous years was relatively strong. The domestic economy was sluggish but exports grew at a high rate, so the overall trend has stabilized. Due to strong exports, few domestic wholesalers, and good inventory removal results, channel pressure has improved markedly.
In October, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 2.633 million vehicles, down 10.2% year on year and up 3.3% month on month. Encouraged by the surge in exports, the year-on-year growth rate of passenger car wholesale in October was 17 percentage points higher than the retail growth rate.
3. Passenger car production trends in the narrow sense of the word in recent years
Passenger car production will be drastically reduced in 2026. Production increased steadily in September-October, which is a big contrast to the strong increase in 2025. Exports continued to strengthen this year, leading to a relatively high in October production during the year, but the year-on-year trend declined significantly.
Passenger car production in October was 2.65 million units, down 10% year on year, with a cumulative decrease of 7% in 2026. The decline was significant in October 2025 under the ultra-high base figure.
4. Passenger car export trends in the narrow sense of the word in recent years
Exports rebounded slightly in October compared to September, but basically strengthened for 4 consecutive months. The month-on-month rapid month-on-month upward trend changed, and the market gradually entered a stable period.
Passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 928,000 units in October, up 68.5% year on year and 1.0% month on month, accounting for 35% of passenger car manufacturers' sales volume (36% last month, 19% in the same period in 2025).
5. Characteristics of monthly changes in production and sales inventory
Due to the high operating pressure of the market in October, manufacturers' wholesale sales fell below 21,000 units in October, while the monthly domestic wholesale volume of manufacturers was higher than domestic retail sales of 63,000 units. The characteristics of inventory removal were prominent this year. The overall inventory of the passenger car industry fell by 600,000 units in January-October (70,000 units in the same period in 2025, 940,000 units in the same period in 2024, and 110,000 units in the same period in 2023).
6. Growth characteristics of passenger cars in the narrow sense of the word
Passenger car retail sales fell 27% and wholesale fell 10% in October 2026. The retail growth rate was much weaker than the wholesale growth rate, forming a pattern of internal cooling and external heat.
Entry-level consumption has been hit hard. Due to the impact of high fuel prices and the suspension of subsidies, retail sales of A-class cars and A00-class cars were both lower in October. A0 class cars and high-end models became the main retail force in October. The high-end performance of SUVs was strong, and sales of mainly A0 class cars rebounded.
7. Growth characteristics of passenger cars by country in the narrow sense
In October, retail sales of 1.21 million vehicles under independent brands were recorded, a year-on-year decrease of 22% and a year-on-month increase of 7%. The domestic retail share of independent brands in the same month was 73.4%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points over the previous year. Overall, the performance of independent brands in the new energy market and export market is relatively stable.
Mainstream joint venture brands retailed 320,000 vehicles in October, down 38% year on year and up 2% month on month. In October, the retail share of German brands was 12.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous year; the retail share of Japanese brands was 10.2%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous year; the retail share of American brands was 2.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous year.
In October, 110,000 luxury cars were retailed, down 39% year on year, down 34% month on month, and luxury brand retail share was 7%, down 1.4 percentage points year on year.
8. 2026 Brand Production and Sales Characteristics
The original brand value system has changed, and the pressure on luxury brands has continued to increase recently. The production and sales trend pressure of joint ventures continues to be strong, and the advantages of the independent brand industry chain are obvious.
Demand differentiation pressure was strong in October, and the fuel vehicle market trend was poor month-on-month, leading to a deterioration in joint venture brand trends. Independence from new energy sources and exports performed relatively well.
9. National New Energy Permeability Rate - Wholesale
The wholesale penetration rate of NEV manufacturers was 67.3% in October, up 12 percentage points from October 2025.
In October, the penetration rate of own-brand new energy vehicles was 77.1%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 48.4%; and the penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brand NEVs rose to 20.7%.
In October, wholesale sales of traditional car manufacturers fell 35% year on year, while new energy vehicles increased 10% year on year, with a growth gap of 45 percentage points. The fuel vehicle market continued to be sluggish, and NEV exports contributed greatly.
10. National New Energy Penetration Rate - Retail
In October, the overall retail sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China was 67.5%, an increase of 10.5 percentage points over the same period last year, and an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the same period last year.
In domestic retail sales in October, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 84.8%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 19.4%; while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands only rose to 19.7%.