U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October from the prior month, exceeding the 0.3% rate economists expected but slower than September’s 0.6% pace, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.3% month over month against a 0.2% consensus.

The bureau did not publish annual inflation rates this month, because prices for October 2025 were never collected during last year’s government shutdown, so the monthly figures are the only inflation reading available.

Ahead of the release, the CME FedWatch tool priced a 99% chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates by a quarter point to a 4.00%–4.25% range at its Dec. 9 meeting, from the current 3.75%–4.00%.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said he would back a half-percentage-point rate hike if October inflation came in 0.3% higher on the month.

This is a developing story.

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