The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bernstein pointed out in a research report released on November 9 that the US nuclear power operator Constellaton Energy (CEG.US) performed strongly in the third quarter, with earnings per share significantly exceeding market expectations. The company raised its full-year profit guidelines for the second time in the year. Meanwhile, as AI data centers drive continued growth in electricity demand, Constellaton Energy signed a number of long-term power supply agreements with tech giants such as Amazon (AMZN.US) and Google (GOOGL.US), further enhancing the visibility of future revenue. Bernstein maintained the stock's “outperforming market” rating, with a target price of $296.
According to financial reports, Constellaton Energy's earnings per share for the third quarter of 2026 in accordance with US GAAP (GAAP) were 5.19 US dollars, up 74.7% from 2.97 US dollars in the same period last year, higher than market expectations of 3.8 US dollars, and exceeded expectations by about 36.6%. Adjusted operating earnings per share were $5.06, up 66.4% from $3.04 in the same period last year. It was also higher than market expectations of $3.86 and exceeded expectations by about 31.1%.
Bernstein pointed out that the strong performance was mainly due to a favorable electricity market environment, higher capacity revenue, excellent commercial business performance, and the contribution of Calpine's business. However, this favorable factor was partially offset by the decline in revenue from tax credits for nuclear power production.
Benefiting from earnings performance exceeding expectations, Constellaton Energy raised its adjusted operating earnings per share guidance for the 2026 fiscal year to $12.5 to $12.5 from the previous one to $12.5 to $12.8. This is the second time this year that the company has raised its full-year performance forecast. The median value of the new guidance range is $12.65, which is about 5.4% higher than the previous $12, and also higher than the $12.04 market consensus forecast compiled by the media.
In addition to short-term performance, Bernstein believes that the acceleration in the signing of long-term power supply contracts is another major highlight of this financial report.
According to the data, Constellaton Energy signed a long-term agreement of about 4,560 megawatts in the third quarter, driving the total scale of long-term agreements signed from the beginning of the year to about 8,500 megawatts. Bernstein believes that these agreements further highlight the premium value of existing clean energy generation assets in the context of continued growth in electricity demand.
Among them, Constellaton Energy and Amazon signed a 20-year electricity purchase agreement with a scale of 690 megawatts and related retail electricity supply agreements. The agreement will support the company's investment of more than $3 billion in the Calvert Cliffs nuclear power facility, including a 190 megawatt power generation capacity expansion project scheduled to be completed between 2030 and 2032.
At the same time, Constellaton Energy reached a long-term strategic cooperation with Google and signed a 20-year power purchase agreement, which will support more than 4.3 billion US dollars in nuclear power investment. Related projects are expected to add about 890 megawatts of nuclear power installed capacity, and the first capacity increase project is scheduled to begin in 2028.
The two sides also signed a 15-year financial electricity load follow-up agreement with a scale of 2,700 megawatts to meet the energy needs of large electricity customers.
Additionally, Constellaton Energy launched a new power solution called Peak+ and signed the first 20-year 270 MW agreement, which will begin implementation in 2028. The plan combines additional power generation capacity, demand response mechanisms, and customized energy supply, and is mainly aimed at large-scale enterprise customers.
In terms of expanding power supply capacity, Constellaton Energy also agreed to buy Rhode Island State Energy Center, a subsidiary of Shell Energy North America, for $715 million. The natural gas combined cycle power plant has an installed capacity of 609 megawatts, and the transaction is still subject to regulatory approval and customary delivery conditions. Once the acquisition is complete, the asset will be incorporated into Constellaton Energy's market-based power generation portfolio.
In terms of financing, the company has signed a conditional commitment agreement with the relevant finance office of the US Department of Energy to obtain a loan guarantee of up to 5 billion US dollars to support nuclear power facility capacity expansion projects. Management said the financing arrangement is expected to provide a low-cost and longer-term funding source for future growth projects. In terms of return on capital, Constellaton Energy has repurchased a total of about 11 million shares since this year and invested about 3 billion US dollars.
Bernstein believes that Constellaton Energy's third-quarter results exceeded expectations, an increase in earnings guidance for the whole year, and a continued increase in long-term power supply agreements all formed a positive signal. As large technology companies increase investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and demand for stable, reliable, and low-carbon electricity supply continues to grow, the strategic value of Constellaton Energy's existing nuclear power assets is expected to further increase.
However, the bank also pointed out that the company will still face certain risks in the future, including whether uncontracted power generation capacity can sign long-term contracts at attractive prices after tax credits are gradually withdrawn, new nuclear capacity projects may be postponed, and capacity prices in the US PJM electricity market may drop significantly.
Bernstein maintains Constellaton Energy's “outperforming the market” rating and a target price of $296. Based on the closing price of $249.95 on November 6, this price target represents about 18% potential upside.