Kaspi.kz just printed Q3 2026 numbers with revenue of KZT 1,117,194m and net income of KZT 280,984m, yet the stock slipped 1.8% today to $87.87. That pullback puts shares further under pressure after a weak few months, even as the headline earnings line stayed solid.
The main focus is on margin strain. Trailing net profit margin now sits at 24.1%, down from 30.1% a year ago, and the market is treating that compression as the key signal. Short term traders appear to be reacting to that pressure, while longer term investors may compare it with Kaspi.kz trading on a 6.9x P/E and peers at higher levels.
Like the Kaspi.kz story but uneasy about shrinking profitability? Consider reviewing the 37 high quality undervalued stocks for ideas that combine lower valuation multiples with more resilient margins.
Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
- Revenue (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): KZT 1,117,194m vs. KZT 1,123,954m (slight year on year decline in quarterly revenue)
- Net Income (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): KZT 280,984m vs. KZT 279,418m (broadly stable quarterly profit, with a small increase)
- Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): KZT 1,478.65 vs. KZT 1,465.00 (modest uplift in earnings per share)
- Net Profit Margin (Trailing 12 Months vs Prior Year): 24.1% vs. 30.1% (clear compression in profitability over the past year)
Kaspi.kz’s neighborhood grocery pilot is already running near 15% EBITDA. Ask Charlie what Kaspi.kz’s grocery rollout means for margins.
Kaspi.kz Bull Case Hinges On Execution Milestones
The bullish analyst narrative on Simply Wall St argues that Kaspi.kz can turn its super app into a higher margin engine across Kazakhstan and Türkiye.
"The key requirement is that Kaspi.kz successfully scales higher-margin e-commerce value-added services, AI-powered product discovery and Turkish fintech products while managing funding costs, interest rates and regulatory requirements in both markets."
On the value-added services side, Q3 data supports that requirement. E-commerce revenue grew faster than GMV and advertising and delivery grew even quicker, lifting take rates to 16.3% for e-commerce and about 11.9% for the marketplace. Kasper usage, with 1.4 million users and higher conversion, shows the AI piece moving from idea to execution despite group net margin pressure.
One Narrative disagrees with today's price. → See where this Narrative says Kaspi.kz should trade.
Kaspi.kz Bear Case: Margin Squeeze Outruns Product Wins
The bearish analyst narrative on Simply Wall St argues that Turkish spending and new products are weighing on profits before they earn their keep.
"This means incremental compliance, tech and funding costs may weigh on net margins well before the Turkish fintech revenue contribution becomes material."
Kaspi.kz now reports a trailing net profit margin of 24.1%, down from 30.1%, while full-year EBITDA is only guided to grow about 5% despite constant-currency revenue rising 18%. Türkiye fintech features such as HepsiCredit are still in the early stages, and management is only signaling materially lower Türkiye investment and funding costs from 2027. That timing indicates the margin drag highlighted in the bearish case has not been cleared in this earnings round.
Hunt For Disconnected Fundamentals
Kaspi.kz just showed how a stock can soften even when the headline profit line holds up. The real opportunity is finding companies that could be undervalued before the crowd catches on.
- Company 1 - 36% below our estimate - converts a large backlog of AI infrastructure and multicloud database contracts into heavier, capital-intensive deployments for demanding enterprise workloads.
- Company 2 - 34% below our estimate - scales first party device resale, AI automation and trade in partnerships to squeeze more profit from an already sizeable recommerce volume.
- Company 3 - 28% below our estimate - positions high performance chips and networking hardware at critical choke points where fast growing data traffic must be processed, stored and secured reliably.
That is three of the list. See all 37 potentially undervalued companies →
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