If you had just skimmed the headlines on Hawaiian Electric Industries this year, the story might have sounded cleaner than the experience of holding the shares. Holding Hawaiian Electric Industries from the start of the year would have meant a 28.1% loss, including dividends. If you were weighing that decision back on 1 January 2026, with wildfire liabilities, rate cases and grid projects all in motion, which signals really pointed to this outcome?
On Simply Wall St, a Narrative is an investor's thesis written down: the reasoning, plus the numbers it rests on. Run those numbers and you get an estimated Fair Value.
The move put Hawaiian Electric Industries in the middle of this trade. Scan 41 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks for other companies exposed to it.
The Two Stories Investors Had To Choose Between On Hawaiian Electric Industries
The shares cost US$12.3 at the start of the period, which meant any narrative around Hawaiian Electric Industries needed to justify paying more or less than that price.
The bullish view saw fair value at US$14, about 14% above the start price, hinging on revenue growth of 8.6% a year and profit margins improving to 2.7% within three years.
The more cautious story put fair value at US$10.75, roughly 13% below the same price, assuming 6.2% annual revenue growth while noting that wildfire liabilities could keep pressure on cash flow and debt.
What The Evidence Did To The Hawaiian Electric Industries Argument
The key event for Hawaiian Electric Industries was finalizing the US$4b Maui wildfire settlement and starting US$479m annual payments, which supported the cautious focus on legal and cash flow risk. Reported results showed revenue at US$1.01b and net income at US$35.45m in Q3 2026, with net margin at 3.5%. The evidence cut both ways.
The lesson is simple: when a thesis hinges on legal overhangs and heavy infrastructure spend, track settlement cash outflows, securitization plans, and reported net margin together. That combination helps indicate whether a utility narrative is tightening or fraying.
What Hawaiian Electric Industries' Lower Price Asks You To Believe
Hawaiian Electric Industries now trades at US$9.08 from the start of the year, with this bullish analyst Narrative on Simply Wall St suggesting its Fair Value sits above that level.
The Narrative leans on wildfire cost recovery, large grid projects and balance sheet repair. A buyer today would need confidence that regulators keep backing timely recovery so ongoing wildfire and grid spending does not crush long term earnings power.
"The current numbers and ownership profile imply a share price that does not fully reflect approved wildfire cost recovery, large committed grid investments and ongoing moves to simplify the business and repair the balance sheet."
That disagreement has a full argument behind it. → Uncover the higher Fair Value this Narrative argues for
How Could You Get There Earlier?
This company's disappointment is already part of the story. Your next idea could come from looking where the price and the possibilities still seem far apart. Here are three companies priced below our estimates.
- Company 1 - 31% below our estimate - uses tight offshore vessel supply to secure longer, more profitable service work.
- Company 2 - 16% below our estimate - focuses on complex electrical systems for data center and large utility projects.
- Company 3 - 35% below our estimate - grows higher margin payment offerings as merchants route more transactions through it.
Those are three of them. See the full list of 36 companies trading below our fair value estimates →
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