Shareholders might have noticed that Tokmanni Group Oyj (HEL:TOKMAN) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.0% to €6.41 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at €445m, although statutory earnings per share came in 17% below what the analysts expected, at €0.20 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Tokmanni Group Oyj's four analysts is for revenues of €1.87b in 2027. This would reflect a credible 5.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Tokmanni Group Oyj is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €0.75 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €1.88b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.77 in 2027. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Tokmanni Group Oyj
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €6.93, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Tokmanni Group Oyj, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €7.00 and the most bearish at €6.80 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Tokmanni Group Oyj is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Tokmanni Group Oyj's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Tokmanni Group Oyj is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Tokmanni Group Oyj's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Tokmanni Group Oyj analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Tokmanni Group Oyj (1 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.
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