According to Woofun AI, Strategy (MSTR.US) stated in its third-quarter report to the SEC that its Class A common stock is expected to be excluded from the MSCI Global Investment Markets Index (GIMI) in November 2026.
This decision stems from a new standard announced by MSCI.US (MSCI.US) on October 15, which classifies companies whose core business holds investment assets as “non-operating enterprises” and allows them to be removed; however, according to the rules, current constituent stocks must not pass the relevant screening for two consecutive annual reporting periods before they can be removed, and the final results are yet to be confirmed. As the results of the assessment approach being announced at 11:00 p.m. (CET) on November 11, the market is closely watching the subsequent index adjustments that took effect after closing on November 30 and officially implemented on December 1. This is seen as a major liquidity stress test for the world's largest enterprise BTC holders.
Judging from the capital flow structure, the passive fund's heavy balance operation will be a direct source of impact. J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.US) estimates that if the exclusion comes true, the fund tracking the index may sell Strategy shares worth about US$2.8 billion (approximately KRW 3.7461 trillion).
Notably, this selling pressure only targets its equity, not its underlying BTC assets, as index rules don't force funds to dispose of cryptocurrencies held by MicroStrategy. However, if other major index providers follow similar measures, the scale of capital outflows is likely to expand further — the total amount can reach up to about $8.8 billion, based on the simultaneous exclusion of multiple indices by J.P. Morgan Chase.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, MicroStrategy still purchased 1,036 BTC at an average price of $79,012, costing about US$81.9 million, increasing its total holdings to 850,364 units, and the cumulative acquisition cost rose to US$64,165 million, driving the overall average cost to $75,456.
This continuous increase in positions highlights the tension between management's insistence on long-term value and short-term market fluctuations against the backdrop of weak indices.
The more critical variable is the double squeeze on asset valuation and financing capacity. As of the 11th, the spot price of BTC had fallen to $73,774, below MicroStrategy's average acquisition cost of $75,456, which meant that its book assets were losing money. The market is concerned about the negative feedback cycle formed by “Bitcoin price falling below average” and “index exclusion triggers sell-off”: the stock price is pressured by passive selling, which in turn worsens its conditions to raise capital through additional shares, and ultimately weakens its ability to continue to buy BTC.
This indirect path is more disruptive than index exclusion itself, because the narrowing of financing channels will directly limit the core growth engine of microstrategy. Although the company is not required to sell BTC immediately, rising financing costs due to falling stock prices may force future capital expenditure plans to slow down.
MSCI's final list is expected to be announced on the morning of the 12th Korea time. If MicroStrategy is removed as scheduled, actual passive fund rebalancing will be concentrated when US stocks close on November 30. This is a substantial revision of the valuation logic of “coin hoarding” companies by traditional index compilation rules following the crypto asset compliance dispute. Short-term liquidity shocks are inevitable, but the long-term impact depends on whether the BTC price can stabilize above the $75,456 cost line and whether MicroStrategy can maintain its market position as the preferred target for BTC leveraged exposure outside the index.