12:08 AM EST, 11/11/2026 (MT Newswires) -- AlphaValue/Baader Europe is of the view that Ryanair's (RYA.IR) sustained fare recovery is "not enough" to absorb the extra fuel cost anticipated in fiscal 2028, as analysts tweaked their estimates for the Irish budget airline. "After declines of 6% in Q1 and 2% in Q2 FY27, fares turned positive from early August, and Q3 is now trending up by a mid-single-digit growth. Q4 should post a double-digit increase. For FY28, we now factor in a double-digit increase in average fares, supported by constrained European capacity, competitor failures and the fuel surcharges that legacy carriers are likely to reintroduce on short-haul," the research firm said Tuesday, noting its increased fare forecasts reflect management's commentary on pricing inflection. Analysts also expect revenue per available seat kilometer to "meaningfully" improve in 2028, albeit from a "low" 2027 baseline, while their per-passenger ancillary revenue growth estimate is held steady at 1.5% per year, in line with company guidance. Against this backdrop, AlphaValue/Baader Europe raised the stock's price target to 26.9 euros from 25.9 euros, with a reduce rating. While projected share buybacks of 800 million euros for 2027 through first-half 2028 and 850 million euros thereafter are expected to cushion EPS fall, the research firm believes they will not reverse next year's cost pressures. Accordingly, analysts trimmed their 2027 EPS assumption to 1.53 euros from 1.80 euros.

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