The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs recently released a research report showing that China's battery industry is optimistic about demand in 2027, with an overall increase of at least 20%, with demand for energy storage systems (ESS) growing by more than 30%; the bank gave Zhengli Xinneng (03677) a “buy” rating, while China Innovation Airlines (03931) rated “neutral”.
The report points out that despite short-term pressure brought about by the recovery of consumption tax and the cancellation of export value-added tax rebates, most battery manufacturers have gradually passed on costs to customers and are expected to complete the transition in the first quarter of 2027.
On China's new aviation side, energy storage has been largely transferred to consumption tax, and the negative impact of the fourth quarter should be largely eliminated; the power battery transfer operation is still challenging. Management expects September to be the peak impact period, but the problem will be resolved by the first quarter of 2027 at the latest. The company also anticipates a significant improvement in gross margin next year due to the transition period of new production capacity and an increase in the contribution of high-priced products.
Ruipu Lanjun (00666) expects shipments to reach more than 140 GWh in 2027, an increase of at least 30% over the previous year, of which 60% comes from ESS. The management targets a gross margin of more than 15%, and believes that the expansion of the industry's production capacity is controlled by policy, and excess is not expected.
Zhengli Xinneng received a “buy” rating and is optimistic about its growth potential as an emerging battery platform. The company expects shipments to increase by at least 50% year-on-year in 2027, mainly driven by customers such as Zero Sports (09863) and Toyota. Management is also planning to expand ESS production capacity.
Overall, the bank believes that after the cost pressure transitions, the battery industry chain will benefit from overseas ESS, AI data centers (AIDC) and commercial vehicle electrification. The industry's supply and demand pattern is expected to improve in 2027. In particular, high-end production capacity is still tight.