GRAINS
- Corn down 3½ and Dec wheat down 1½ this morning, giving back part of Tuesday
- USDA cut the corn yield 1.6 bushels to 179.6 and ending stocks to 1.758 billion
- A 312,700 tonne flash sale to Mexico set off heavy fund short covering Tuesday
- Corn open interest up 6,155, so new money came in, not just shorts leaving
- Wheat’s own numbers were bearish, stocks up to 743 million and world stocks to 280.8 million tonnes, above the whole pre-report range
- Wheat only rallied because corn and beans did
- A drone attack set fire to Ust-Luga, now the main Russian grain port on the Baltic, which popped wheat overnight before it faded
- Day two of the Abu Dhabi talks ended in under two hours
- Chicago wheat open interest up 8,392, KC down 957
- Corn target 4.64¾ with resistance 4.57¼, wheat resistance 6.00 to 6.07 and support 5.85½
OILSEEDS
- Beans down 6½, meal down 1.70, oil up 53 this morning
- Ending stocks cut to 300 million from 315 million, far under the 332 million the trade expected
- Yield 53.3 against expectations of 55.0, exports raised
- World stocks 123.5 million tonnes, Brazil cut to 186.0 million, Argentina unchanged at 50.0
- Bean open interest only up 893, so Tuesday was short covering more than new buying
- Malaysian palm up 3.62% overnight off a nine-month low, which takes pressure off bean oil
- Alabama and Louisiana petitioned EPA for 2027 blending waivers and the soybean association came out against it
- Jan crush settled 1.81½, down about 20 cents
- Meal is 51% of product value, oil 49%
- Both products rose but beans rose harder
- Thinner margin means processors earn less per bushel and eventually bid less for beans
- Jan beans made an outside day up and tested resistance near 12.50¾
LIVESTOCK
- Cattle up a third straight session after nine lower closes, mostly short covering
- Cash negotiations still undecided, expectations slightly above last week
- Tyson will fully reopen its Amarillo plant by the middle of next year
- Slaughter 111,000 head, week-to-date 218,000 versus 211,000 last week and 228,750 a year ago
- Choice cutout up 24 cents to 362.98, Select down 2.11 to 351.62, spread out to 11.36
- Feeder gains were capped by the corn rally since feed cost cuts into what feedlots can pay
- Dec cattle targets 221.85 and 222.52, Jan feeders support 324.05 and resistance 329.30
- Hogs were the only market lower and sit near contract lows
- Lean hog index projected down 29 cents at 59.99, cutout down 97 cents at 69.84
SOFTS
- March sugar traded below 18 cents for the first time since August before buying near 17.91 pulled it back
- Cheap crude keeps Brazilian mills making sugar instead of ethanol, which adds supply
- Sugar support 18.00 and 17.50, resistance 20.00
- Cocoa dropped 268 as the West African main crop arrives into a large global surplus
- Dry weather threatening the next Ivory Coast crop is the one bullish piece
- Cocoa support 4,920 and 4,860, resistance 5,440
- Coffee lower in New York on Brazil quality concerns, with Central America dry and differentials near record highs
- Vietnam’s harvest starts later this month and their ten-month exports are up 18.8%
- OJ higher with USDA putting Florida production at 10.0 million boxes against 13 million last year, and drought still hurting the trees
FINANCIALS
- Dollar index up 0.3% and near the 18-month high set in October after a hot October CPI
- WTI up 0.7%, stock index futures higher
- Treasuries and government offices closed for Veterans Day, so thin volume
- Trump and Xi meet next week at APEC in Shenzhen
CURRENCIES
- Dollar strength is the headwind under everything, it makes US grain more expensive abroad
- That works against the export demand the WASDE just credited us with
- Watch the Brazilian real, a weaker real pushes Brazilian farmers to sell into our market
SETTLEMENTS
- Dec corn 4.48 (+8¾) · Dec Chicago wheat 5.91½ (+3½) · Mar KC wheat 6.33½ (+1)
- Jan beans 12.26¾ (+38½) · Jan meal 326.30 (+5.40) · Jan soyoil 62.90 (+0.71)
- Feb live cattle 222.55 (+2.45) · Jan feeders 326.68 (+2.50) · Dec hogs 55.88 (unch)
- Mar cocoa 4,852 (−268) · Mar sugar 18.15 (−0.06) · Jan OJ 146.15 (+0.10)
- Crush (Jan): 181½ ---meal 51.01%, oil 48.99%
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