The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is $514.18 over the next 12 months. That means 5.2% upside from the $488.78 close. The model gives AMD a buy rating with high confidence.

Metric Value Current Price $488.78 Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $514.18 Upside/Downside 5.2% Recommendation BUY Confidence Level 90%

AMD just reported a record quarter, yet the stock trades 25.8% below its 52-week high while management guides for faster growth. The gap between how fast the business is growing and where the stock sits right now drives our positive view.

Record Quarter Lands During a Sharp Pullback

Shares fell 15.5% over the past week and 22.63% over the past month. Even so, AMD is still up 128.23% year to date and 159.7% above its 52-week low of $188.22.

Third quarter revenue reached $13.38B, up 44.7% YoY and ahead of the $13.08B consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.09 beat the $1.94 estimate. Data Center sales climbed 97% to $8.55B, and segment operating margin widened to 34% from 25%. The stock rose after the report because fourth quarter guidance calls for roughly $17.0B in revenue, about 66% YoY growth at the midpoint.

Why Bulls See $682 Ahead

The bull case reaches $682.33, about 39.6% above today’s price. Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle brought their first Helios racks online last quarter. Management expects Data Center revenue to grow about 50% sequentially in the fourth quarter.

CEO Lisa Su raised the bar further: “We now expect revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027.” She also expects operating expenses to grow less than half as fast as revenue, which points to wider margins. On top of that, Meta’s commitment for up to 6 GW of Instinct GPUs gives AMD visibility for years.

The consensus target is $649.38, with 5 Strong Buy, 39 Buy and 11 Hold ratings and no Sells.

Cash Flow and Inventory Are the Risks to Track

The bear case comes to at $410.75, roughly 16% below the current price. Free cash flow fell 70.9% to $554M. Inventory rose 35% from the prior quarter to $11.46B. Its free cash flow multiple stands at 119.1. Gaming revenue dropped 40%, and export controls remain a risk after $440M in FY25 inventory charges linked to China restrictions on the MI308.

Management says the drop in free cash flow came from working capital and capex spent to secure capacity. The inventory build supports data center demand that exceeds supply. GAAP EPS of $1.46 included a $1,097M non-cash warrant charge that leaves non-GAAP results and free cash flow unchanged.

AMD Carries a Premium Over NVIDIA and Intel on Trailing Metrics

AMD’s direct competition in AI accelerators is NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). The stock carries a trailing P/E of 40 and about 50 times free cash flow, and its latest quarterly revenue rose 105.85% to $96.22 billion. That makes NVIDIA cheaper on current earnings, which argues against setting an AMD target far above consensus.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) competes with EPYC in server CPUs. Data Center and AI revenue grew 78% to $7.318 billion, but the company still posts a negative P/E and operating margin. Intel shows that AI demand only pays off with execution behind it, and AMD’s track record of execution supports its premium.

Company Trailing P/E Price-to-Book Latest Revenue Growth AMD 123 12.67 44.7% NVIDIA 40 30.72 105.85% Intel Negative 2.71 20.95%

AMD’s forward P/E of 29 is far lower than its trailing multiple. Against this peer group, our target looks reasonable.

Execution Tips the Scale Toward a BUY

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $514.18 carries a buy rating with 90% confidence. The fourth quarter guide supports that rating.

The outlook strengthens if Helios deployments increase as expected and free cash flow recovers as inventory turns into sales. The outlook weakens if supply limits or export rules delay the MI450 increase. As things stand, the growth path outweighs the valuation risk.

Our model projects where AMD could trade if current growth trends and market conditions hold.

Year Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. 2026 $514.18 2027 $532.67 2028 $560.58 2029 $592.56 2030 $622.53

These projections assume AMD keeps executing on its data center strategy. Results could come to well above or below them depending on how the MI500 generation is adopted and on export-control policy. The traits that showed up early in the last decade’s biggest chip winner are the ones we cataloged in a free playbook on spotting the next one.

Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the author only. It does not represent the opinion of Webull, nor should it be viewed as an indication that Webull either agrees with or confirms the truthfulness or accuracy of the information. It should not be considered as investment advice from Webull or anyone else, nor should it be used as the basis of any investment decision.