Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

Arcos Dorados typically reports earnings before the market open, meaning Day 0 captures the first full trading session where investors react to results, and Day +1 reflects follow-through.

The stock has shown a clear pattern of volatility on earnings day, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 5.55% and an average Day 0 range of 7.65%. The most dramatic reaction came in May 2026, when the stock surged 12.52% on Day 0 following the Q1 earnings beat, with an intraday range of 9.73%. The August 2026 Q2 report produced a more modest 3.04% gain on Day 0, despite the company posting record revenue and a 46.67% earnings beat.

Day +1 moves have been smaller but still meaningful, averaging 2.32% in absolute terms with a 4.22% range. The pattern suggests initial reactions are often sharp, but follow-through is less predictable—the stock gave back 2.83% on Day +1 after the August 2026 report, even as the fundamental results were strong.

The historical data shows the stock is capable of double-digit moves on earnings, particularly when results surprise materially to the upside or downside. The November 2025 report saw a 5.27% Day 0 gain followed by a -3.43% Day +1 reversal, while the March 2026 report was essentially flat on Day 0 (-0.39%) despite a 54.55% earnings beat, suggesting the market had already priced in strength or was focused on forward guidance.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing a 10.03% expected move for the November 20 expiration, which is notably higher than the 5.55% average historical Day 0 move but in line with the 7.65% average Day 0 range. This suggests options traders are anticipating above-average volatility, possibly reflecting uncertainty around Brazil trends and macro conditions heading into year-end.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Arcos Dorados carries a Strong Buy consensus from analysts, with 5 Strong Buy ratings, 0 Moderate Buys, and 1 Hold. The average price target of $10.11 implies 45.7% upside from the current price of $6.94, with a high estimate of $12.00 and a low of $8.55.

The consensus has remained unchanged over the past month, with the same 5 Strong Buys and 1 Hold in place. However, JPMorgan recently trimmed its price target from $10.50 to $10.00 while maintaining an Overweight rating, citing a cautious near-term outlook. That adjustment reflects some moderation in expectations, even as the firm remains constructive on the stock.

The Street's bullish stance is rooted in the company's valuation—analysts have highlighted the stock's low P/E ratio near 6.6x relative to sector averages, combined with a sharp expected earnings increase of over 200% in 2026. The mean target of $10.11 suggests analysts see the stock as materially undervalued, though some have noted that longer-term earnings forecasts point to declines, which tempers the enthusiasm. The high target of $12.00 implies the most optimistic analysts see nearly 73% upside, while the low target of $8.55 still represents 23% upside, indicating a wide range of outcomes but no bearish calls in the coverage universe.

Part 4: Technical Picture

The Barchart Technical Opinion currently shows a 100% Sell signal, unchanged from last week but significantly more bearish than the 56% Sell reading from a month ago. The deterioration in the technical picture has been sharp and recent, with the signal moving from a moderate sell to a unanimous sell over the past four weeks.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal indicates near-term momentum has turned decisively negative
• Medium-term (100% Sell): Bearish reading suggests weakness has extended beyond the immediate timeframe into the intermediate trend
• Long-term (100% Sell): Sell signal reflects deterioration in the longer-term trend structure

Strong Strongest trend characteristics indicate the technical environment is uniformly bearish across all timeframes, with no offsetting strength to provide support heading into earnings.

The stock is trading at $6.94, below all major moving averages except the 10-day ($6.91). It sits below the 5-day ($6.97), below the 20-day ($7.32), below the 50-day ($7.56), below the 100-day ($7.86), and below the 200-day ($8.18). The downward slope of the moving average structure confirms the stock is in a sustained downtrend, with the 200-day average serving as overhead resistance nearly 18% above the current price.

The technical setup heading into earnings is decidedly weak. The stock has broken below all meaningful support levels and is trading at the bottom of its recent range, with the 200-day moving average acting as a distant ceiling. The uniformly bearish signal across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes suggests the market is pricing in either disappointing results or cautious guidance. For bulls, the setup offers a potential mean-reversion opportunity if the company delivers another beat and raises expectations—but the technical damage will take time to repair. For bears, the trend remains firmly in control, and any rally on earnings would face resistance at the 50-day moving average near $7.56.