The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that the upward cycle of science and technology opens up long-term demand space for emerging industries, compounding that the global resource game continues to heat up, and the supply of strategic metals naturally has strong rigid constraints. In recent years, the price center of strategic metals represented by molybdenum, tin, tungsten, tantalum, uranium, and rhenium has continued to rise. In this context, the three main lines of military metals, computing power metals, and gaming metals correspond to the three core drivers of national defense and security stocking, AI computing power industry expansion, and supply chain sovereignty checks and balances. Driven by triple logic, commodity prices of related strategic metals are expected to continue to benefit.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
Looking ahead to 2027, three new clues relating to strategic metals investments have been summed up:
(1) Military metals: In the context of “turbulent times” such as the ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict, global resource supply security is under threat, driving countries and production chains to raise agreed inventories to deal with potential supply disruptions. Among them, strategic metals that can be used in the military industry are a top priority. Since the outbreak of the US-Israel conflict, a large amount of weapons and ammunition has been consumed. Therefore, the US, Israel, and Iran's weapons consumption and stockpiling by other countries based on security requirements will inevitably drive a significant increase in demand for corresponding strategic metals, and the military sector is not very price sensitive. Prices of related metals (such as tungsten, molybdenum, antimony, rare earth, tantalum, rhenium, etc.) are expected to fully benefit.
(2) Computing power metals: The global wave of computing power construction is accelerating. AI servers, high-speed optical modules and advanced packaging continue to be released. Metals such as copper, aluminum, tin, indium, tantalum, germanium, and molybdenum are irreplaceable upstream cornerstones of computing power hardware, ushering in demand-side structural expansion. Price centers for strategic metals with large AI exposure, such as tantalum, indium, and tin, continue to rise against the backdrop of continued upward growth in computing power capital expenditure and the acceleration of global AI computing power infrastructure construction.
(3) Gaming Metals: Against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring and the intensification of high-end material games, “gaming metals” is showing strength. Unlike military metals/computing power metals, which are driven by the expansion of downstream military/computing power demand, the core logic of “gaming metals” is the check and balance of resources and material sovereignty: relying on resource endowments to implement export control on some key raw materials to form a supply chain advantage, covering many key aspects of high-end manufacturing (such as high-end zirconia, tungsten powder/tungsten rods, high-purity indium, etc.). Supply and demand for these varieties are no longer simply determined by industrial demand. Geographic policies, export controls, and supply chain security have become core variables. They are key materials for large countries to take the initiative in the industrial chain game, and it is expected that they will continue to fulfill their strategic value in the process of reshaping the global industrial chain.
Risk warning:
Macroeconomic policy risks. The development of the industry is greatly affected by the economic situation and policies. If changes in the situation and policy adjustments cause the development of the industry to fall below expectations, the demand for related materials will also fall short of expectations;
The rapid development of AI and rapid technological iteration bring investment opportunities, but there is also a risk that it will be replaced by new materials and new technologies;
The risk that the industry will fall short of expectations. The development of AI brings investment opportunities in related strategic metals, but shipments of related hardware are slow, or the performance of related enterprises falls short of expectations;
Raw material risks, fluctuations in the price of raw materials for production, or fluctuations in the production and operation of relevant strategic metals companies may have adverse effects to a certain extent. In addition, some raw materials, such as tantalum, are highly dependent on the outside world. If the supply chain is interrupted or raw materials are limited, it may affect the production of related enterprises.