The Zhitong Finance App learned that on the last trading day (November 11), the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 0.46% to 3680.64 points, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 1.32% to 11,389.74 points, and the GEM index rose 3.11% to 2572.07 points; the two markets had a turnover of 2154.695 billion yuan; up 3,538 companies, down 1,827 companies, up and down 1.
Huafu Securities believes that the US CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations month-on-month, and the main line of inflation switched to domestic demand services, and the December interest rate hike is basically fixed; CITIC Securities believes that US stocks are more suitable for a low layout next year, and the US dollar will decline slightly, and gold prices are expected to recover; Cathay Pacific Haitong believes that due to the acceleration of satellite internet networking, the rocket engine market space is about 25.50/10 billion yuan in 2029; China Investment Investment Securities believes that the rise in large-scale model capacity is driving the robotic implementation rate to a new high level; Huayuan Securities believes that the scale and proportion of bond ETFs will reach a new high level and increase in proportion. to 22.0%, Shin The purchase is the main driver for capacity expansion.
CITIC Securities: US stocks are more suitable for falling next year. Interest rates on US bonds and the US dollar will decline slightly, and gold prices are expected to recover
The global economy has remained resilient this year, and the Middle East situation is showing signs of peace. The blue wave of the midterm elections is expected to influence the narrative trend of the market next year. CITIC Securities predicts that the US economy will grow more evenly and moderately next year, domestic demand in the EU continues to expand, and the Japanese economy is expected to recover; the impact of the oil price shock will weaken next year, and the overall inflation rate in Europe and the US may fall after a sluggish peak. The European and American central banks are close to the end of this round of interest rate hikes, while the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates quarterly until the first half of next year.
In terms of asset allocation, US stocks may be more suited to a balanced strategy and preference style next year. Interest rates on US bonds and the US dollar index have a slight downside, and gold prices are expected to recover as expectations of liquidity contraction weaken.
Huafu Securities: The US CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations month-on-month, the main line of inflation shifted to domestic demand services, and the December interest rate hike was basically certain
In October, US CPI increased 0.4% month-on-month (0.3% higher than expected, 0.6% previous value), and core CPI increased 0.3% month-on-month (exceeding expectations by 0.2%, previous value 0.3%). In terms of items, energy is the main reason for the slowdown in CPI growth this month. The month-on-month contribution rate fell to 0.05% from 0.4% last month; the contribution rate for food items rose to 0.07%, core commodities fell to 0.04%, and the core service drive rate declined 0.06 percentage points to 0.18%. Structural differentiation is obvious: energy-driven recession, marginal rebound in food, outstanding inflationary resilience in core services, slight weakening of core commodities, and a shift in inflation-driven main line from energy to domestic demand service inflation.
Service inflation showed diffuse characteristics: core services increased 0.3% month-on-month, with an increase of more than 0.3% for 3 consecutive months, including housing rents 0.3% month-on-month and 0.7% for hotel accommodations; transportation services (excluding energy services) rose to 0.8% month-on-month and continued to rise in April, showing signs that energy price increases were transmitted to core CPI; service CPI after excluding housing rents continued to strengthen to 0.5% (previous value 0.3%), and endogenous inflationary pressure continued to rise.
After the data was released, the US dollar index quickly rose and broke through the 102 integer mark. Comex gold prices fell under pressure. The futures of the three major US stock indexes all fell. US bond yields rose sharply, and the long-term and short-term increases were over 10 bps. The term spread narrowed further, and the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in December exceeded 100% in market pricing. The inflationary resilience of core services exceeds expectations and is compounded by AI-related inflationary pressure, which means it is difficult for inflation to converge to the 2% target at current interest rates. This is also the core logic of the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates and lengthen the high interest rate cycle; this CPI is the last inflation report before the December interest rate meeting. Huafu judged that the fundamentals of the December rate hike were fixed. The focus of the subsequent game will shift to the path of interest rate hikes in the first half of next year. We need to track whether the pace of AI investment will slow down after the Democratic Party wins the election and whether the lagging effect of rising interest rates in the early stages can suppress demand in traditional industries.
Cathay Pacific Haitong: Satellite Internet networking is accelerated, and the market space for rocket engines is expected to reach 25/50/10 billion yuan in 2027-2029
Demand for satellite internet constellation networking is being released at an accelerated pace, and the rocket engine market space is expected to continue to expand. Commercial space is driving the transformation of the space industry from customization, small batches, and high cost to standardization, scale, and low cost; low-orbit satellite frequency orbit resources are scarce, and demand for rocket launches is urgent due to ITU constellation deployment requirements. China achieved a breakthrough in rocket recycling technology in 2026, but large-scale reuse still needs continuous verification, and the short-term impact on demand for new engines is limited. Assuming that at least 10 liquid rockets have network launch capability, and that the number of launches of a single model in 2027-2029 is 5/10/20 times, respectively. Based on estimates of 10 single-arrow engines and 5 million yuan for a single engine, the corresponding annual theoretical market space is about 25/50/10 billion yuan, respectively.
On the technical route, liquid oxygen kerosene has matured and become the mainstream choice for most rockets, and liquid oxygen methane has become an important development direction due to its potential for reuse; the supply system is being dominated by central state-owned enterprises to co-develop with multiple players. The Aerospace Science and Technology Group has deep technology accumulation. Private enterprises such as Blue Arrow Aerospace, Tianbing Technology, Galaxy Power, Zhongke Aerospace, Interstellar Honor, and Oriental Space are promoting independent development and construction of full-arrow integration capabilities. Independent power suppliers such as Kyushu Yunjian explore specialized supporting models.
Technical barriers focus on two major aspects of materials and material processing: the material end consists of high-performance copper alloys, high temperature alloys, titanium alloys and refractory metals to construct the core material system; complex cooling channels and precision structures at the processing end require strict forming processes and processing accuracy, and metal additive manufacturing has significant advantages in complex structural molding, reducing the number of parts, and shortening the manufacturing cycle.
SDIC Securities: Big models are in full bloom to promote the scenario-based implementation of robots, and race on race tracks at home and abroad
The big models are in full bloom, and I am optimistic that the robot will land in a scenario. GPT-6 Astra was released in September 2026, which pushes the robot from “can perform actions” to “can complete tasks”: Referring to the Galaxy GM team evaluation, the mixed architecture scored 62.6 points and the second place was only 38.26 points, greatly increasing the upper limit of the ability of end-to-end transformation models in terms of semantic understanding, visual perception, and task planning, but there are still deficiencies in tasks that rely on contact stability and fine control. In November 2026, Anthropic released Claude Fable 5.2 and Claude Mythos 5.2. In the RoboDojo robot simulation test, Fable 5.2 scored as high as 64.9%, clearly ahead of the GPT-6 Astra's 29.8% and 27.6% of its old model; the big model can directly control the camera screen to unscrew the bottle cap, unscrew the Rubik's Cube, and even draw stick figures. Looking forward to the future, domestic models are also expected to use open source and specific scenario implementation to reduce training and application costs, and gradually open up the “last mile of robot landing.”
Overseas manufacturers entered the market at an accelerated pace and raced on the racetrack. On November 4, Apple released a paper on the progress of humanoid robots, showing the HALO autonomous system (pre-training with simulation data, airborne operation), and deployed to actual home scenarios not seen by the Yuki G1 robot. The average success rate for a single task reached 91%. According to “The Information”, Meta has cooperated with Chinese robot manufacturer Fourier Intelligence to develop the humanoid robot prototype Max, and has begun developing the second-generation Max 2. Internally, its chief technology officer regards humanoid robots as physical avatars of personal agents.
Huayuan Securities: The size of bond ETFs reached a new high, and the share rose to 22.0%. Subscription is still the main driver for capacity expansion
The size of bond ETFs reached a new high, accounting for 22.0% of ETFs in the market. Subscriptions were still the main driver of expansion: net inflow of 55.68 billion yuan in October, and net worth changes dragged down the scale of about 2.68 billion yuan, eventually forming a scale increase of 52.99 billion yuan; credit bonds and interest rate bond products expanded together, and the size of convertible bond ETFs declined.
Yield stratification continued, and the advantages of ultra-long bonds converged compared to September. Most pure bond ETFs achieved positive returns in October. Long-term interest rate bonds had a relative advantage with local bond products, and the yield of convertible bond ETFs declined markedly; credit bond transactions continued to expand and transactions were still concentrated on leading products. The overall discount premium was moderate, credit bond discounts narrowed, and the impact at the end of the month disrupted the phased weakening of the relationship between ultra-long term bonds and long-term returns. Currently, short- and medium-term bond yields are at historically low levels, credit spreads are low, yield curves are still steep, and opportunities for ultra-long-term bonds are still prominent.