agilon health (AGL) just put fresh numbers on the table by reporting third quarter earnings and updating full year guidance, which gives investors new data on profitability and revenue expectations.
The latest earnings release and raised full year guidance landed alongside a powerful share price swing, with agilon health posting a 7 day share price return of 19.31% and a 30 day gain of 34.30%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 631.51% contrasts sharply with a 3 year total shareholder return that is down 63.23%, highlighting strong recent momentum after a difficult longer run.
Spot fresh momentum in agilon health, and then broaden your watchlist with a curated set of resilient healthcare and quality-focused stocks through the 30 resilient stocks with low risk scores.agilon health now appears more like a profitable growth story than a turnaround project. After such a sharp re-rating, the key question is whether the current share price already reflects that shift.
Most Popular Narrative: 90% Undervalued
agilon health closed at $114.81, while the analyst consensus Narrative on Simply Wall St assigns a fair value of $115.83, which implies the stock is trading very far below the narrative based estimate once the 90% discount to fair value is taken into account.
The ongoing move toward value-based primary care for seniors, with agilon health focused on full-risk Medicare Advantage and ACO models such as global capitation and REACH or MSSP or LEAD, can give the company a longer term stream of per-member revenue that is less tied to short-term membership swings and more tied to total medical cost performance and quality scores.
The expanded data pipeline that now reaches more than 80 to 85% of members and payers, combined with AI-driven risk stratification and suspecting, is already lifting risk scores by about 3% year over year net of V28 and can continue to support higher revenue per member and more stable earnings as coverage and model accuracy improve.
See why 12 investors see agilon health as 1% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $115.83 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the narrative around agilon health can crack if Medicare Advantage membership keeps falling or if ongoing losses of US$106.1 million do not narrow as expected.
Find out about the key risks to this agilon health narrative.
Next Steps
Feeling optimistic about agilon health after this narrative, or still on the fence? Use the data, pressure test the assumptions, and then weigh the 3 key rewards.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond agilon health?
If agilon health has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to uncover other opportunities before they move without you.
- Target stronger balance sheets by zeroing in on companies with robust fundamentals through the list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (23 results).
- Hunt for potential mispricing by scanning companies flagged as having appealing valuations using the 32 high quality undervalued stocks.
- Spot fresh opportunities early by reviewing the 19 high quality undiscovered gems before they appear on everyone else's radar.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com