The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report stating that maintaining China's Overseas Development (00688) “buy” rating, the estimated core net profit for 26-28 was 117, 121, and 13 billion yuan, and the net profit amounts to mother were 107, 118, and 13 billion yuan, respectively. Referring to the comparable housing enterprise PB, the valuation was based on the 26H1 adjusted net assets ($252.6 billion) of 0.6xPB. The reasonable value of the corresponding company was $151.6 billion, and the reasonable value per share was HK$16.15 per share (HKD/RMB exchange rate of 0.86). CNOOC's third quarter performance slightly exceeded expectations. Since the “828” New Deal, the industry's supply and demand pattern has improved, and the probability of stabilization in Tier 1 and 2 cities has increased, and the company is expected to benefit from asset price restoration in the core market.
The main views of GF Securities are as follows:
High settlement led to an increase in operating profit, and Q3 profit margins rebounded year-on-year
According to the third quarter results announcement, the company's 26Q1-3 cumulative revenue was 13.4 billion yuan, operating profit of 14.49 billion yuan, +10.2% year-on-year, and growth rate increased 6.7pct over the first half of the year; single-quarter performance: 26Q3 revenue of 32.8 billion yuan in a single quarter, +65.8% year-on-year, and operating profit of 1.95 billion yuan, +89% year-on-year. In terms of profit margin, the cumulative operating profit margin for the first three quarters was 11.1%, down 1.7 pct year on year. Q1-Q3 was 11.2%, 13.9%, and 5.9%, respectively. Every year since '21, Q3 has been a four-quarter low profit margin. 26q3 has risen 0.7 pct compared to 25q3, and the profit margin is expected to remain stable throughout the year.
Sales are rising steadily
According to Kerry, CNOOC (Group) had sales of 181.04 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +6.2% year over year, second in full caliber, equity sales of 166.52 billion yuan, +6.2% year over year, and equity first. China Overseas Development (excluding Hongyang) has full-caliber sales of 154.15 billion yuan, +4.9% year-on-year, with an average sales price of 40,000 yuan/square meter, +50% year-on-year. Red Market in core cities led to a steady increase in sales.
Investment strength increased significantly in the third quarter
In terms of investment, the amount of land acquired by China Overseas Development (excluding Hongyang) in the first three quarters was 57.08 billion yuan, the amount of land acquisition was 37%, the equity acquisition amount was 56.1 billion yuan, the equity ratio was 98%, the equity level of land acquisition was 99.9 billion yuan, and the equity replenishment effort was 70%, a slight decrease of 6 pct from 25 years. Resource acquisition efforts were increased in the third quarter, and land acquisition efforts were 126% in a single quarter. In terms of investment distribution, Shanghai's 18.9 billion yuan, Beijing's 15.6 billion yuan, Hong Kong's 8.4 billion yuan, and Shenzhen's 5.5 billion yuan. The four cities accounted for 85% of land acquisition, a further increase of 6 pct over 25 years. Others include point-level investments such as Suzhou, Shenyang, Changsha, Zhuhai, and Xiamen. The average sales price for land acquisition in the first three quarters is expected to be 70,000 yuan/square meter, a further 4% increase over 25 years.
Risk Alerts
Industry sentiment affects the company's demise; the investment side is cautious; scale growth falls short of expectations; future profit margins fluctuate.