According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin recently slipped to around $74,000, not only falling below the $7.56 million short-term holder cost base, but also clearly outperforming the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices in the post-midterm election market rebound. Over the past 30 days, the total stablecoin supply has shrunk by $14.2 billion, the fastest contraction rate since June 2022.
Despite the net outflow of US spot ETFs and deep pressure from negative premiums on Coinbase (COIN.US), the near-end long leverage in the market has been drastically cleared, and buying below the spot order book continues to weigh above selling pressure. Since the upward structure established in August has remained stable above the previous low of $58,500, the two giant whale wallet groups have taken the lead in restarting fund-raising.
In terms of chip distribution, the $7.3 million to $7.6 million range is seen as a key observation point, while Bitcoin did slide into this area and traded around $7.4 million. The current price is below the short-term holder cost base of $75,600, which represents the average cost of holding a position for investors who have bought over the past 155 days. At the time of peaking in September, almost all short-term holders' chips were in surplus; up to now, this percentage has dropped to about 35%, and short-term investors who recently chose to sell are on average suffering small losses. The cost base distribution clearly reveals where to buy these chips: Currently, about two-thirds of short-term chips are above the current price, distributed in the three chip intensive bands purchased from August to October, extending up to $83,600.
Once the market rebounds, many of these duvet holders may take the opportunity to get back to the market. Looking below the current price, the only dense short-term holders' cost base band is between $62,000 and $66,000, mainly composed of purchases near the August low; this range reflects the distribution of purchase prices; it is not a clearing area, nor can it be determined that this area will form support based on this. It is important to note that the higher-level market structure that began in August is still stable. The September high was the first upward band high since the historical peak in 2025, and the current price is still significantly above the pre-June low of $58,500. If the market recovers the true market mean (True Market Mean) of $77,500 in the future, about half of short-term holders' chips will return to the profit range.
At the macro level, the trend of Bitcoin and US stocks diverged. Last week's analysis showed that most of Bitcoin's decline during the midterm elections was actually released early before voting. This was followed by a new round of sell-off, which began on November 5, impacting both the US stock and Bitcoin markets. However, starting November 9, the two trends began to diverge. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 index have now both recovered their closing positions on election day, while Bitcoin fell again after the CPI data was released on November 10, and the cumulative decline so far is still around 5%. It is only when the price rises back above the election day closing price of $7.78 million that Bitcoin can truly catch up with the recovery of US stocks again.
Interest rate prospects also continue to put pressure on the market. The two-year US Treasury yield reflects traders' expectations for the average policy interest rate of the Federal Reserve over the next two years. Currently, the yield is 4.75%, which is 75 basis points higher than the Federal Reserve's current benchmark interest rate of 4%, indicating that the bond market is measuring the possibility of further interest rate hikes in the future. But it's important to note that this is far from being as intense as 2022's austerity shock. The same spread soared to 244 basis points in June 2022, but now the spread is only about one-third of what it was then, and has narrowed somewhat since late October. While the higher interest rate environment is still a headwind for risky assets, the bond market is not betting on a repeat of the 2022 austerity crisis.
In terms of liquidity, there are clear signs that stablecoins are leaving the market at an accelerated pace. Stablecoins are equivalent to cash reserves in the crypto market, that is, dollar funds that traders park on exchanges and chains before they buy coins. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that in the past 30 days, the total supply of stablecoins across the network fell sharply by US$142 billion, the fastest contraction rate since June 2022. The continued contraction in supply means that holders are redeeming stablecoins for fiat dollars and directly withdrawing cash from the crypto ecosystem, which has left a potential upward market without key “fuel”. Tether also reflects this kind of capital outflow pressure. Recently, the price was slightly lower than the $1 anchor price transaction.
If the 30-day supply change turns negative again, it will be the first clear sign of a return of fresh capital from the market.
Weak institutional demand also cannot be ignored. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have also moved to a net redemption status. Over the past 20 trading days, these funds recorded a cumulative net outflow of $1.6 billion and broke through the $1.5 billion threshold we use to define a “continuous outflow cycle” on November 9.
However, with reference to several ETF outflow cycles in history, the scale of this round of exodus is still shallow, and the depth of most past outflow bands far exceeds the current one. According to previous rules, ETF funds usually only return to net inflows after Bitcoin has bottomed out in stages, so the return of funds is often a sign of lag in confirming the bottom. The negative premium on the Coinbase platform is significant. The Coinbase Premium Index measures the spread between the price of Bitcoin and the global composite price on Coinbase, the main trading platform for US investors. We've removed the trade-off disruptions caused by Tether being slightly unanchored below $1 to avoid magnifying the visual negative premium margin. Judging from the 30-day average, the Coinbase premium has remained in a negative range since the September high fell all the way back. Currently, the depth of discount has reached its lowest point since February of this year. In every upward cycle in the past, US buyers actively swept away goods and pushed the premium to maintain a positive value. Currently, there is a clear absence of US buying. If this premium can be corrected and held steady for several weeks in the future, it means that domestic demand in the US is actually returning.
The derivatives structure shows that chips near the current price are sparse, and liquidations below are intensive. The liquidation heatmap measures the trigger zone where leveraged futures positions were forced to flatten at different prices. On the positive side, the slump since the September high has cleared up most of the long liquidations that have accumulated along the way, as illustrated by the dark vacuum area behind the K line. This has greatly reduced the risk of a series of stampedes and leveling off near the current price. On the liquidation heatmap for the past six months, the largest liquidation concentration area is far below between $59,500 and $62,600, and has not been touched since it bottomed out in August. However, between this concentrated area and current market prices, the distribution of liquidation is very thin.
At the same time, although the price of the currency has fallen by about 15% from the September high, the total online contract volume (Open Interest) has rebounded to the level of the September high, which suggests that many traders are shorting their positions in the middle of the decline. Once the currency price turns up, these new bears will be forced to buy back and close their positions; currently, the largest short liquidation center above the current price is around $88,500.
The spot order book showed a similar pattern of excessive support. Since the sell-off on November 5, pending orders within the 5% range of current prices between Binance and Coinbase have surpassed sales orders in every hour. The brackets below the heatmap indicate the areas with the highest concentration of purchase orders, which are mainly distributed between $68,000 and $72,500. The square brackets above show the exact opposite: after crossing the sales order belt close to the current price, the entire sales order book was extremely sparse until about $84,000, corresponding to the dark vacuum band in the picture.
This means that if the price breaks through upward, there will not be much resistance from the order book itself, but it is still necessary to positively absorb the selling pressure from short-term holders who are waiting to untie the game. At the same time, it is also important to note that price limit orders may be withdrawn at any time. In fact, during the sharp drop in early November, some back-up orders were briefly withdrawn before being put back on hold. Major wallets are starting to step in. The Funding Trend Score (Funding Trend Score) tracks the increase and decrease in positions of wallet groups with different coin holding sizes (close to 1 indicates active fund-raising, close to 0 represents distribution and reduction), and is calculated by position volume. Over the past week, two wallet groups increased their ratings above 0.5: wallet groups with 100 to 1,000 BTC, and wallet groups with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC. The two groups had previously been in a distribution state for most of October.
It is worth noting, however, that these two types of large wallets were also briefly purchased in late September, but were unsustainable at the time. In addition to this, all other coin holding groups are currently continuing to reduce their holdings, from giant whales holding more than 10,000 BTC to retail wallets with less than 1 BTC. It can be seen that this is only an early exploratory review of a small amount of funding. Only when small to medium coin holding groups also follow suit can the buying power of the entire market be fully recovered.
Bitcoin is experiencing a correction in an environment where there is a lack of incremental capital support: buyers have generally lost money recently, the trend has clearly outperformed US stocks, and capital in the three dimensions of stablecoins, US spot ETFs, and local US purchases are being lost at the same time. There really aren't many catalysts that are directly beneficial in the short term. However, in contrast to this, futures long leverage around the current price has been effectively cleared, and the two major groups of major players have taken the lead in buying. For investors who see August 2026 as the starting point for a major cyclical trend reversal, it is now a critical window for the market to prepare for a return to the mean.
If the market succeeds in recovering the short-term holders' cost base of $75,600 in the future, it will strongly confirm this biased judgment. Conversely, if it continues to fall below the lower end of last week's watch band of $73,000, it means a longer period of volatile consolidation; if the closing actually falls below the pre-June low of $58,500, it will completely falsify the reversal trend established in August. Data cut-off time: Price and derivatives data is up to 11:00 UTC on November 11, 2026, and spot order book data as of 09:00; ETF fund flow, stablecoin supply, cost basis, and fund-raising trend scores are calculated until November 9.