Acadia Healthcare Company (ACHC) lifted its 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $3.44b to $3.46b after reporting third quarter sales of $895.31m and nine-month revenue of $2,589.95m.
The share price of Acadia Healthcare Company has surged over the past month, with a 28.99% 30 day share price return and a 171.52% year to date gain, while the 3 year total shareholder return is down 48.21%. This signals strong recent momentum after a much weaker longer term experience for shareholders.
Spot Acadia Healthcare style momentum in other areas of the market by scanning our hand-picked 19 high quality undiscovered gems that have strong fundamentals but are still off most investors' radar.After a surge like this, either Acadia Healthcare still offers meaningful upside or most of the easy gains now sit in the rearview mirror. The valuation work now has to do the heavy lifting.
Most Popular Narrative: 8% Overvalued
Acadia Healthcare Company last closed at $38.80, which sits above the analyst consensus Narrative fair value of $36.07 that is based on a 7.79% discount rate and detailed revenue and earnings forecasts. The analyst consensus Narrative on Simply Wall St ties that fair value to a specific view of how capacity additions, margins, and cash flow unfold over the next several years.
The main thing that has to go right is continued execution on bed expansion, operational discipline, and revenue-cycle management, while containing higher professional and general liability costs and legal risks.
The current valuation, which this narrative views as fairly valued and bullish, implies that the market already prices in sustained demand, ongoing EBITDA and free cash flow delivery, and successful management of legal and payer related headwinds.
See why 2 investors see Acadia Healthcare Company as 8% overvalued.
Result: Fair Value of $36.07 (OVERVALUED)
Still, unresolved legal and regulatory investigations at Acadia Healthcare, along with pressure from payer denials and bad debts, could weaken earnings quality and challenge today’s upbeat narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Acadia Healthcare Company narrative.
Another View: Cash Flow Signals For Acadia Healthcare
Analysts looking at Acadia Healthcare Company through a P/S lens see fair to modest value, with the current 1.1x ratio sitting slightly below both the US Healthcare sector at 1.3x and the fair ratio of 1.3x. That price gap can point to either a margin of safety or a market that is cautious about Acadia Healthcare’s loss making history and negative 49.81% return on equity. Which side of that trade do you think you are on?
See what the numbers say about this price in more detail in our valuation breakdown, starting with See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown..
Next Steps
Momentum this strong can feel exciting or uncomfortable, depending on your read of Acadia Healthcare and the risks on your radar. Act while the data is fresh, weigh the recent surge against the fundamentals, and decide what really matters to you by reviewing 3 key rewards.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Acadia Healthcare?
Do not stop your research with Acadia Healthcare Company. Broader context from other opportunities can sharpen your judgment and keep your watchlist focused on quality.
- Target higher quality at sensible prices by scanning the 32 high quality undervalued stocks that combine strong fundamentals with potentially more attractive entry points.
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