A week ago, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:IONS) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$243m exceeding analyst forecasts by 32%, and statutory losses of US$0.66 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Ionis Pharmaceuticals' 24 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.30b in 2027. This would be a major 35% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 31% to US$2.27. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.36b and losses of US$1.95 per share in 2027. While next year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a notable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
See our latest analysis for Ionis Pharmaceuticals
The consensus price target fell 9.3% to US$76.30, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ionis Pharmaceuticals at US$105 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$41.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ionis Pharmaceuticals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 27% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 22% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Ionis Pharmaceuticals is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Ionis Pharmaceuticals. They also downgraded Ionis Pharmaceuticals' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Ionis Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the Ionis Pharmaceuticals Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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