There's been a notable change in appetite for Qualys, Inc. (NASDAQ:QLYS) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 13% to US$183. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$188m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Qualys surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.62 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Qualys from 22 analysts is for revenues of US$802.1m in 2027. If met, it would imply a notable 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 11% to US$6.80. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$796.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.54 in 2027. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
See our latest analysis for Qualys
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$197, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Qualys, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$220 and the most bearish at US$140 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Qualys shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Qualys' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Qualys' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 8.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Qualys is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Qualys' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Qualys' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Qualys analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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