The Zhitong Finance App learned that J.P. Morgan Chase released a research report on Thursday saying that as the humanoid robot industry shifts from the demonstration stage to commercial deployment, the production of humanoid robots in the US is expected to reach 300,000 to 400,000 units by 2030, and about 1.5 million units by 2035. The research report points out that labor shortages, economic improvements, and increased production capacity are driving the adoption of humanoid robots in manufacturing, logistics, and warehousing, and companies hope to automate repetitive tasks through this.
Supply bottlenecks constrain deployment
J.P. Morgan said that the Trump administration determined that imported robots and industrial machinery posed a national security risk, which could lead to tariffs or other measures to boost domestic production in the US.
The agency pointed out that the deployment of humanoid robots is limited by hardware, AI training data and computing power, and production capacity. With the exception of Tesla (TSLA.US), most US manufacturers target production of 10,000 to 30,000 units per year.
The agency estimates that the cost of humanoid robots is approaching labor costs, and that multi-shift deployment can save each customer approximately $100,000 per year.
“Recent progress is still constrained by supply, and there are several key bottlenecks: hands, actuators, brains, and production capacity,” the agency said.
J.P. Morgan believes that parts suppliers provide the biggest opportunity in the near future. It is estimated that by 2035, the market size of key components such as actuators, motors, and vision systems will be close to 30 billion US dollars.
Key companies: machine manufacturers and parts suppliers
J.P. Morgan expects value creation to shift to robot manufacturers and platform integrators over time.
Among American humanoid robot manufacturers, J.P. Morgan focuses on Tesla's Optimus, Agility Robotics (AGLT.US) Digit, Boston Power's Atlas, Figure AI's Figure robot, and AppTronik's Apollo.
In terms of parts suppliers, J.P. Morgan is optimistic about Timken (TKR.US), Robotis, Green Harmonics (688017.SH), Obi Zhongguang-W (688322.SH), and CGNX.US (CGNX.US).