Kemper Corporation (NYSE:KMPR) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.8% to US$34.76 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues were US$1.1b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.88, an impressive 29% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Kemper, is for revenues of US$4.23b in 2027. This implies a small 4.8% reduction in Kemper's revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Kemper forecast to report a statutory profit of US$3.90 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.25b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.00 in 2027. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
See our latest analysis for Kemper
The consensus price target held steady at US$37.33, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Kemper analyst has a price target of US$43.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$27.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would also point out that the forecast 3.8% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2027 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 5.4% annually over the past five years Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 2.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Kemper to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$37.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Kemper analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Kemper that we have uncovered.
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