Pre-market market trends
1. Before the US stock market on November 12 (Thursday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.07%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.39%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.76%.
2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.82%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.35%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.73%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.28%.
3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 0.81% to $85.83 per barrel. Brent crude fell 0.71% to $92.10 per barrel.
Market news
Deutsche Bank increases hawkish predictions! The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates continuously for the next three meetings, and will not be suspended in January next year. After the US inflation data for October exceeded expectations, Deutsche Bank quickly turned to more hawkish policy predictions. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates during the next three meetings, changing its previous judgment of suspending action in January next year. Deutsche Bank previously predicted that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December and March next year, respectively, and that action will be suspended at the mid-January meeting. However, the latest forecast includes interest rate hikes in January next year as the benchmark scenario. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in December, January, and March next year. This means that the federal funds rate target range will rise from the current 3.75% — 4.00% to 4.50% — 4.75%. Before the inflation data was released, Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that if price pressure accelerates further, the Federal Reserve should consider raising interest rates by 50 basis points in December instead of adopting a regular 25 basis point adjustment. Deutsche Bank believes that Waller's statement has opened up room for discussion on a larger interest rate hike. The bank did not rule out the possibility that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 50 basis points in one go in December, but emphasized that this was not a basic forecast.
Nvidia's “Black Swan” stirs up AI beliefs! Hwang In-hoon's turmoil led to the buying of US bonds, and long-term US debt bucked the trend. The Nvidia crisis caused the market to doubt the main line of AI transactions, and safe-haven purchases poured into US debt. This chip giant is the core pillar of the AI market. Any negative turmoil could damage market confidence far beyond the company's own scope. The 30-year US Treasury yield declined by 2 basis points to 5.34%. Thursday will usher in the same period treasury bond tender; the 10-year US Treasury yield stabilized at 4.99% after a brief decline. Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Carol Kong said, “The series of news surrounding Wong In-hoon further shook the market's confidence in the AI narrative and led to small safe-haven purchases on US bonds. Nvidia is critical to the AI investment boom and the global economy, and there is no doubt that all market participants are closely monitoring developments.”
A sign that the situation in the Middle East is cooling down? Rumor has it that Vance is considering face-to-face talks with senior Iranian security officials. According to reports, US Vice President Vance is considering holding face-to-face talks with Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezai to push for an end to the war in Iran. US President Trump is open to this. The report quoted US and Middle Eastern officials as saying that Trump recently revealed to senior staff and relevant sources that Vance is open to restarting negotiations between the US and Iran and has authorized him to carry out negotiations. The report said that US officials stressed that discussions on Vance's direct meeting with Iranian officials “are still in the preliminary stages,” and no specific dates have yet been set. However, the two countries are currently discussing follow-up arrangements through mediators and others. People familiar with the matter revealed that if the meeting takes place, the next phase of negotiations may be held in Doha, Qatar.
Is oil price no longer critical? The trickiest part of US inflation is probably outside of energy. With the collapse of the linkage between oil prices and US Treasury yields formed after the outbreak of the war in Iran, investors are facing a new market reality: even after the war ends and energy prices return to normal, US inflation will not necessarily cool down significantly, and the austerity pressure on the Federal Reserve may continue. For most of 2026, Wall Street generally believed that rising oil prices would push up inflation expectations, which in turn would drive higher US bond yields. Higher energy costs will not only directly raise consumer prices, but may also cause the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time. As a result, investors may sell off US debt or demand higher yields to cover risks. However, this trading logic has recently changed. This week, international oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than two months. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have risen sharply because the latest economic data may prompt the Federal Reserve to take more aggressive action to raise interest rates. This means that even if oil prices fall further, as long as US economic performance remains strong, inflationary pressure may still push US bond yields to continue to rise.
Individual stock news
As Coreweave ignites AI fervor, can Nebius (NBIS.US) use explosive performance to defend the rise in AI computing power? In recent years, it has switched to Nebius, a European technology leader that provides cloud-based AI computing power resources. At a time when Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun's negative impact incident led to a sharp decline in the AI computing power industry chain after another negative impact incident, what it urgently needs to prove is that the increase in computing power can be realized simultaneously with the delivery of production capacity that exceeds expectations and that capital can be delivered faster than expected, so that CoreWeave's strong performance and the new wave of computing power fanaticism sparked by the Anthropic IPO roadshow continued. Nebius Group will announce its performance report and future outlook during the pre-opening session of the US stock market on November 12, Beijing time.
The governance crisis continues to ferment! Nvidia (NVDA.US) shares dived ahead of the market. Before the US stock market on Thursday, as of press release, Nvidia fell nearly 7%. Three days after posting an article admitting her extramarital affair on November 8, Hwang In-hoon was revealed to have a second extramarital relationship. The woman was Nvidia's vice president who reported her work directly to her. Meanwhile, according to media reports, citing people familiar with the matter, Nvidia's board of directors is intensively preparing to dismiss Wong In-hoon. The board of directors will be held on November 12 as soon as possible to decide where to stay, and has cooperated with external headhunters to find a successor and consider appointing an interim CEO to transition first. Some commentators believe that Nvidia may be able to get through this turmoil, but the process will be extremely difficult, and it is quite likely that Hwang In-hoon will be removed from the position of CEO. According to data from the forecast market Polymarket, the probability of the market betting that Hwang In-hoon will leave his job or be removed has soared. As Nvidia is about to release financial results for the third fiscal quarter next week, “key person risk” worries investors.
Memory chip stocks and optical communication stocks generally declined before the market. Before the US stock market on Thursday, as of press release, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) fell nearly 4%, Sander (SNDK.US) and Micron (MU.US) fell more than 3%, Seagate (STX.US) and Western Digital (WDC.US) fell more than 2%; Coherent (COHR.US) fell more than 4%, Astera Labs (ALAB.US), Credo Technology (CRDO.US), Lumentum (LITE.US) fell more than 3%, and Mywell Technology (LITE.US) fell more than 3% MRVL.US) fell more than 2%.
Musk: 100 gigawatts in space and 800 gigawatts on Earth. After the SpaceX (SPCX.US) starship, we need to use “space computing power.” SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on Wednesday refuted claims that terrestrial solar energy was compared to orbital solar energy. Currently, the company is stepping up efforts to launch data centers into space. Musk posted an article on the X platform saying, “100 gigawatts in space is roughly equivalent to 800 gigawatts on Earth.” He also said that terrestrial solar energy “must be equipped with large-scale batteries to continuously supply computing power at night, and is complemented by combustion power generation or nuclear power in winter,” and concluded from this that the two solutions “are not at all the same thing.” Musk has previously said that data centers in space will eventually surpass terrestrial infrastructure. SpaceX has submitted an application to the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) seeking permission to operate up to 1 million Starmind satellites. The first satellites are expected to be launched in the second half of next year.
Alphabet (GOOGL.US) launched a roadshow to issue Hong Kong dollar and Singapore dollar bonds. The AI market may become a “litmus test” for investor confidence when the AI market fluctuates. Alphabet has launched its first Hong Kong dollar and Singapore dollar bond issuance roadshow to test investors' subscription interest at a time when AI companies face increased market volatility. According to a source familiar with the matter, Alphabet's initial price guidelines for the planned 2-year, 5-year and 10-year Hong Kong dollar bonds are around 4.6%, 5%, and 5.5%, respectively. The source said that the company is also promoting 2-year, 5-year, 10-year and 30-year bonds denominated in Singapore dollars, with initial price guidelines of around 2.75%, 3.25%, 3.65%, and 4%, respectively. Earlier reports indicated that Alphabet plans to issue Hong Kong dollar bonds worth 1 billion to 1.5 billion US dollars, and Singapore dollar bonds worth about 1.5 billion US dollars.
CoreWeave (CRWV.US) plans to raise at least US$4 billion after raising revenue guidelines: AI computing power suppliers launch a “junk level to investment grade” credit transition. CoreWeave plans to raise at least $4 billion through an investment-grade loan after raising its annual sales forecast and easing investors' concerns about its heavily indebted business model. According to people familiar with the matter, Morgan Stanley and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) are taking the lead in promoting this potential financing, and the loans will be distributed to investor syndicates in stages. The company, which is still classified as junk, previously relied heavily on high-yield bond market financing for its data center expansion. But it was able to lock in lower borrowing costs by using chips and related contracts as collateral for debt — a structure that is expected to continue into this new financing. According to preliminary discussions, the issuance yield of the new financing is likely to be between 7% and 7.5% — a figure the company revealed during an earnings call with analysts on Tuesday. This level is only about half of the yield on existing junk bonds.
Key economic data and event forecasts
21:30 Beijing time Number of jobless claims in the US at the beginning of the week ending November 7
21:30 Beijing time 2026 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Hamak delivered a speech
At 23:00 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivered a speech on artificial intelligence and inequality
The next day at 00:30 Beijing time, 2027 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby delivered a speech
The next day at 02:10 Beijing time, 2027 FOMC voting committee and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly delivered a speech
The next day at 02:30 Beijing time 2028 FOMC voting committee and Kansas Federal Reserve Chairman Schmid delivered a speech
The next day at 07:30 Beijing time, FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams delivered a speech
Performance Forecast
Friday morning: Cisco (CSCO.US), Applied Materials (AMAT.US), Cerebras Systems (CBRS.US)