One concrete flashpoint dominated eBay headlines this year: GameStop’s unsolicited US$56b bid, which the board rejected while doubling down on recommerce, live shopping and AI tools. Holding eBay from the start of the year would have returned 42.2%, including dividends. If you had been weighing a purchase on 1 January 2026, what exactly did you need to believe about those focus categories and capital allocation decisions before any takeover drama hit the wires?
A Narrative on Simply Wall St is one investor's written case for a company, with its growth, margin and multiple assumptions spelled out. Those assumptions imply an estimated Fair Value.
The easy part of this move is behind eBay. Zero in on 32 high quality undervalued stocks for companies trading below our estimates.
The Two Stories eBay Investors Were Debating
The shares cost US$87.1 at the start of the period, and eBay sat between two sharply different stories about what the marketplace could become.
On the bullish side, the Fair Value was set at US$102, or 17% above the start price, based on confidence that AI fashion tools, live commerce and collectibles would build powerful network effects and support high margin recommerce.
The bearish view put Fair Value closer to US$50, or 43% below the start price, and focused on risks from stronger ecosystem rivals, younger shoppers preferring social commerce, and regulatory and logistics pressures weighing on growth and margins.
What The 2026 Evidence Actually Tested For eBay
eBay’s Q3 2026 report showed revenue at US$3.2b versus US$2.82b a year earlier, which backed the bullish focus on recommerce and category concentration. Net income slipped to US$501m from US$593m and net margin moved from 21.0% to 15.6%, so the profitability part of the optimistic case stayed unproven. Overall, the period cut both ways.
The useful takeaway is simple. When a story leans on higher quality growth, track whether revenue and profit margin move together. If a thesis rests on recommerce and AI tools, check that rising category mix does not come with a thinner net margin in later filings.
What Today's eBay Price Already Assumes
eBay now trades at US$123, up 42.2% from the start of the year, with the bearish analyst Narrative on Simply Wall St placing its Fair Value below that level based on current forecasts.
This view centres on whether recommerce, Depop, shipping programs and AI tools can support earnings without squeezing profitability. A buyer today is effectively assuming those growth levers hold up. How does the risk of thinner margins from Depop and shipping protections weigh on that bet?
"The main thing that has to go right is that eBay converts strong momentum in focus categories, AI driven listing and ad tools, live commerce, vehicles and shipping into sustained, profitable GMV and revenue growth, without further meaningful margin drag from Depop and buyer protections."
One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its lower Fair Value, assumptions and all
Before The Next Story Makes Headlines
The story behind this run has already been told. The next one could be taking shape somewhere else. Where could you start looking before it becomes the headline?
- Company 1 - 44% below our estimate - target AI data centre bottlenecks where GPU racks strain power capacity.
- Company 2 - 37% below our estimate - lean into AI-driven airfreight optimisation and compliance as enforcement workloads expand.
- Company 3 - 38% below our estimate - tackle complex AI-related failures and regulatory issues needing multidisciplinary PhD-level teams.
That is three of the list. See every one of the 23 solid balance sheet companies →
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