D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) just released a detailed third quarter update that combines very large bookings growth, fresh commercial partnerships and progress on CHIPS Act funding with a wider loss and softer system sales.
The third quarter update landed after a rough stretch for D-Wave Quantum’s shareholders, with the stock down 49.04% on a 90-day share price return and 62.14% lower year to date, even as the 3-year total shareholder return sits at a very large gain of about 11x. Recent earnings headlines around wider losses, softer system sales and reduced analyst fair value models seem to have weighed on sentiment, while news of strong bookings, CHIPS Act support and fresh partnerships has not yet shifted that overall downward price momentum.
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D-Wave Quantum now pairs substantial contracted demand, new partnerships and CHIPS Act backing with a sharply lower share price and ongoing losses. Is this a strong platform mispriced by the market, or a high-risk story correctly marked down?
Most Popular Narrative: 3% Overvalued
The narrative fair value for D-Wave Quantum of $10.38 sits slightly below the last close of $10.65. This frames a tight valuation gap that depends heavily on how the upcoming results land. According to DanielOliveira, an investor in the Simply Wall St Community who authored the narrative, the near term hinges on how reported revenue lines up against expectations and how system sales are recognized.
D-Wave reports Q3 2026 on November 10, before the open. Analysts expect $4.34 million on average, 16 estimates between $3.2 million and $7.0 million. That is 41% above Q2's $3.08 million, and in August the company said Q3 revenue would be "up modestly" from Q2. I forecast $3.4 million, up 10.5%, which is below the consensus.
See why 1 investors see D-Wave Quantum as 3% overvalued.
Result: Fair Value of $10.38 (OVERVALUED)
Still, if D-Wave Quantum reports Q3 revenue above the US$4.34 million consensus or logs a second Q4 system sale, this overvaluation call could unravel quickly.
Find out about the key risks to this D-Wave Quantum narrative.
Next Steps
Mixed signals on D-Wave Quantum so far. If you want to move quickly and decide where you stand, start by weighing its 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs.
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