Crude Holds Near the $84 Floor as Nat Gas Stalls at the 50 Day
Barchart·2d ago
Share
Listen to the news
Top 3 Things to Watch into the Energy Close
December crude at $84.08 to $84.30: The May-June highs and the rising 100 day sit together here. A settlement below Tuesday’s $83.88 low could open $80.20 and the 200 day at $78.98. Holding this area would keep December in its range, with $88.51 as the ceiling.
Today’s EIA inventory report: Forecasters expect a small crude draw, but an industry estimate showed a 9 million barrel build. A build near that size could press December toward $84.08, while a draw that extends the five-week streak could support a push toward $88.51.
December nat gas at the 50 day, $3.32, with storage due today: A settlement above it could open Wednesday’s $3.40 high and the 100 day at $3.52. A settlement below Wednesday’s $3.22 settle could put December back inside its old falling channel and reopen the 20 day at $3.10.
Energy Cross Asset Note
Crude is caught between a surge in Gulf supply and talks that keep running into hard lines. Saudi Arabia told OPEC its October production jumped 26% to one of its highest monthly levels in years, Iraq reached a new wartime high, and India now imports more oil from the Gulf than from Russia for the first time in the war. At the same time, a senior Iranian security official said Iran will not remove any enriched nuclear material from the country, one of the key US conditions for a deal. Iranian semi-official media also reported that two loaded supertankers were stopped by explosions while using what Iran called an unauthorized route through Hormuz.
Analysts describe it as a “no war, no peace” market: rising Gulf output raises glut concerns, but the unresolved tensions keep a risk premium in prices that may limit further declines. Fuel markets remain the tight spot, with Ukraine striking at least seven Russian refineries since late October. US crude inventories have fallen for five straight weeks, and today’s EIA report could break that streak after an industry estimate pointed to a large build. In nat gas, December reversed sharply Wednesday. It was up early, then midday forecasts turned warmer for November 16 to 20, and traders are growing more confident El Niño will cut winter demand. Soft output in Appalachia and the Permian limited the losses, though total production is still running above last year. Today’s storage report is expected to show the build season stretching into November, which is rare.
Overseas, European gas rose on war uncertainty, and lower LNG prices are drawing buyers in India. For clients, December crude is boxed between the 100 day and the October lows, and today’s inventory data could decide which side gives way. Nat gas is testing whether this week’s downtrend break can hold after one failed attempt at the 50 day.
Crude Oil - The Setup
Crude Oil - The Technicals
CRUDE OIL
Current Price: December WTI (CLEZ26) $85.66, down $0.87 (1.01%) | Session high $87.54, low $85.20
Chart Setup
December rose 49 cents Wednesday to settle at $86.53, but stalled again below $88.51, the October lows that are now resistance. This morning it reached $87.54, a slightly higher high, then turned lower to $85.20 as Gulf output headlines weighed. The highs have edged up over three sessions, but each has been capped well under $88.51. Price is working back toward the floor at $84.08 to $84.30, where the May-June highs and the rising 100 day sit together. The 50 day at $92.49 has flattened, and the 20 day at $95.65 continues to roll over.
Key Levels Above
$92.49 (50 day)
$90.83 (November 6 settle)
$88.51 (October lows)
$87.54 (today’s high)
$86.53 (Wednesday settle)
Current Price: $85.66
Key Levels Below
$85.20 (today’s low)
$84.30 (100 day)
$84.08 (May-June highs)
$83.88 (Tuesday low)
$80.20 (top of the late-August base)
Bias
The $84.08 to $84.30 area is the level to manage against. Holding above it keeps December in its range, and a settlement above $88.51 could open $90.83 and the 50 day at $92.49. A settlement below Tuesday’s $83.88 low would mean the floor gave way and could open $80.20, with the 200 day at $78.98 below that. For sidelined traders, December is in the lower half of an $84 to $88.51 range with an inventory report that could break it either way. Waiting for a settlement outside that range may carry less risk than positioning ahead of the data.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.09.26)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December Crude Oil futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y
Natural Gas - The Setup
Natural Gas - The Technicals
NATURAL GAS
Current Price: December Natural Gas (NGEZ26) $3.29, up 7.1 cents (2.21%) | Session high $3.32, low $3.23
Chart Setup
December reversed sharply Wednesday. It traded up to $3.40, above the 50 day, then settled down 8.1 cents at $3.22 after forecasts turned warmer. That put it back inside the old falling channel and just below the $3.23 early-October low. This morning December rebounded to $3.32, right at the 50 day at $3.32, and is back above the channel edge near $3.26. The 20 day at $3.10 has flattened underneath, and the 100 day at $3.52 is the next average overhead.
Key Levels Above
$3.65 (mid-October high)
$3.52 (100 day)
$3.40 (Wednesday high)
$3.32 (today’s high, at the 50 day)
Current Price: $3.29
Key Levels Below
$3.26 (top of the old falling channel)
$3.23 (today’s low and the early-October low)
$3.22 (Wednesday settle)
$3.10 (20 day)
Bias
The 50 day at $3.32 is the level to manage against. A settlement above it would be December’s first close above the 50 day since mid-October and could open Wednesday’s $3.40 high and the 100 day at $3.52. A settlement below Wednesday’s $3.22 settle would put December back inside the old channel and could reopen the 20 day at $3.10. For sidelined traders, December has already failed once at the 50 day this week, and warmer forecasts and above-normal storage are working against the rally. Buyers may want a settlement above $3.32 before trusting the breakout. Sellers may want to see a second failure there first.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.09.26)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December Natural Gas futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y
Don't have an account yet?
Open an account with Blue Line Futures and you will gain access to our daily commodity commentary, free desktop and mobile trading platforms, a 24-hour trade desk, and more. Our online application takes about 5 minutes to complete.
Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA's regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you, considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Performance Disclaimer
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
Hypothetical Performance Disclaimer
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Research Disclaimer
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This email may include information produced by third parties. Material not labelled Blue Line Futures LLC should be considered to be third-party, and is provided for informational purposes only. Third-party material is from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Blue Line Futures LLC.
Seasonal Disclaimer
This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.
The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures LLC, 141 W. Jackson Blvd, Suite 2620, Chicago, IL 60604, 312-278-0500
This article contains syndicated content. We have not reviewed, approved, or endorsed the content, and may receive compensation for placement of the content on this site. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the author only. It does not represent the opinion of Webull, nor should it be viewed as an indication that Webull either agrees with or confirms the truthfulness or accuracy of the information. It should not be considered as investment advice from Webull or anyone else, nor should it be used as the basis of any investment decision.
