Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Perpetua typically reports earnings before the market opens, meaning Day 0 reflects the first full trading session where investors react to results, and Day +1 captures follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | +$0.49 (+1.98%) | $0.79 (3.19%) | -$0.85 (-3.37%) | $1.08 (4.28%) |
| 2026-05-11 | +$1.59 (+5.31%) | $2.19 (7.30%) | -$0.46 (-1.46%) | $1.82 (5.77%) |
| 2026-03-31 | +$2.81 (+11.10%) | $2.22 (8.77%) | +$1.40 (+4.98%) | $2.02 (7.18%) |
| 2025-11-14 | -$0.41 (-1.86%) | $2.10 (9.53%) | +$1.04 (+4.82%) | $1.73 (8.02%) |
| 2025-08-13 | -$0.34 (-1.96%) | $0.83 (4.78%) | +$0.50 (+2.94%) | $0.76 (4.46%) |
| 2025-05-09 | +$0.72 (+4.98%) | $0.71 (4.91%) | -$3.44 (-22.66%) | $2.39 (15.74%) |
| 2025-03-19 | +$0.38 (+3.53%) | $0.90 (8.36%) | +$0.31 (+2.78%) | $0.55 (4.93%) |
| 2024-11-13 | -$0.13 (-1.39%) | $0.82 (9.13%) | +$0.24 (+2.71%) | $0.55 (6.21%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 4.01% | 6.99% | 5.71% | 7.07% |
Perpetua's post-earnings price action has been highly volatile, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 4.01% and Day +1 move of 5.71%.
The most dramatic reaction came in March 2026, when the stock surged 11.10% on earnings day despite posting a loss, followed by another 4.98% gain the next session—likely reflecting relief that the loss was smaller than feared. May 2026 saw a 5.31% Day 0 gain, but the stock then plunged 22.66% the following day, suggesting initial optimism gave way to concerns about cash burn or project timelines.
More recently, the August 2026 report produced muted reactions: a 1.98% Day 0 gain followed by a 3.37% Day 1 decline. The stock has shown a tendency for delayed reactions, with the average Day +1 range of 7.07% exceeding the Day 0 range of 6.99%.
Given the company's pre-revenue status and construction-stage profile, price moves appear driven more by project milestones, funding updates, and guidance commentary than by the actual EPS figures themselves.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 11/20/26 (DTE 8) |
| Expected Move | $2.52 (14.03%) |
| Expected Range | $15.47 to $20.51 |
| Implied Volatility | 79.64% |
The options market is pricing a 14.03% expected move for the November 20 expiration, implying a range of $15.47 to $20.51. This is significantly larger than the historical average Day 0 move of 4.01% and even exceeds the average Day +1 move of 5.71%, suggesting options traders are anticipating heightened volatility around this report. The elevated expected move likely reflects uncertainty around construction progress, cash burn rates, and potential commentary on the looming November 27 expiration of China's antimony export ban suspension.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Perpetua Resources carries a Strong Buy consensus from analysts, with an average price target of $36.95—implying 107% upside from the current price of $17.82.
The rating breakdown shows 5 Strong Buys, 1 Moderate Buy, and 1 Strong Sell, with no Hold ratings. Price targets range from a low of $30.00 to a high of $43.50, reflecting broad bullish conviction despite the company's pre-revenue status and mounting losses.
However, sentiment has deteriorated over the past month. The average recommendation score declined from 4.63 to 4.29, and the Strong Buy count dropped from 6 to 5, while a new Strong Sell rating appeared. One analyst moved from Hold to Strong Sell, likely reflecting concerns about execution risk, cash burn, or the ongoing litigation.
The consensus price target implies analysts believe the market is significantly undervaluing Perpetua's strategic position as the only near-term domestic antimony producer and its 4.8 million ounces of gold reserves. Bulls point to the $2.9 billion Export-Import Bank loan approval, over $86 million in government funding, and the project's low all-in sustaining costs. Bears counter that the company faces years of cash burn before first production in 2029, ongoing legal challenges, and commodity price volatility that could erode project economics.
Part 4: Technical Picture
Perpetua's technical setup heading into earnings is decidedly bearish. The Barchart Technical Opinion stands at 96% Sell, down slightly from 100% Sell a week ago but up from 88% Sell a month ago, indicating sustained selling pressure.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (100% Sell): Maximum bearish signal reflects intense near-term downward pressure
- Medium-term (100% Sell): Continued weakness in the intermediate timeframe suggests no relief in sight
- Long-term (100% Sell): Persistent bearish signal across all horizons indicates structural weakness
The signal strength is rated Strong with direction characterized as Strongest, underscoring the intensity of the downtrend environment as the company approaches its earnings report.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $19.36 | 50-Day MA | $20.46 |
| 10-Day MA | $17.87 | 100-Day MA | $21.04 |
| 20-Day MA | $17.97 | 200-Day MA | $24.82 |
The stock is trading below all key moving averages, confirming the bearish technical picture. At $17.82, PPTA sits below the 5-day MA ($19.36), 10-day MA ($17.87), 20-day MA ($17.97), 50-day MA ($20.46), 100-day MA ($21.04), and 200-day MA ($24.82). The widening gap from longer-term averages—particularly the 28% decline from the 200-day—signals a sustained downtrend.
The technical setup is decidedly unfavorable heading into earnings. With the stock in a confirmed downtrend across all timeframes and trading well below key support levels, any disappointment on construction progress, cash burn, or project timelines could trigger further selling. Conversely, the deeply oversold condition means positive surprises—such as better-than-expected cost control, new government funding, or favorable legal developments—could spark a sharp relief rally, especially given the 107% upside implied by analyst price targets.