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Today’s Export Flash Sales
- 136,000 metric tons of soybeans to China during 2026/27 marketing year
Weekly Ethanol Production
Last week’s ethanol production of 1.130 million barrels/day was below expectations but up 5.1% from a year ago.
Grain and Livestock Market Wrap-Up
We said after the USDA report that the corn market got some relief but wasn’t going to be off to the races. The December contract will first need to hold support at recent lows set a few cents under $4.40 and if accomplished, needs to breakout beyond its 20-day moving average at $4.51 to garner better buying interest. It will help the bullish cause if more consistent export demand news continues to surface.
The January soybean contract hit 20-day moving average resistance yesterday and backed off. Failure to push past overhead resistance is the first sign that the soybean market isn’t going to blast off until more meaningful weather concerns arrive for South America. Wet conditions are expected to impact planting progress, but I think we’ll be waiting for dry conditions in Brazil later in their growing season before the fireworks really get started. If the January contract slides back into the low-$12.00 area and holds there, we’ll have a good indication that it’s again time to look at upside exposure.
The dollar index is surging to fresh highs this week and that helped take wheat prices to fresh lows. The December Chicago contract has made a few runs at $6.00 as Russia/Ukraine news comes and goes, but inability to sustain a rally had buying interest heading back to the sidelines today. The bottom line remains that the U.S. is not seeing wheat export business improve as a result of Black Sea disruptions. The December Chicago contract will need a quick recovery, otherwise there’s air on the chart to fall another 20 to 30 cents before the next support levels surface.
December live cattle initially rose to $2.00 gains but continue to struggle to find their footing above the $219 to $220 area. If they can push past that short-term resistance barrier, there’s room to travel to $222.50 to $223.50, where several moving averages converge. Expectations that cash market trade will be steady to higher this week has a chance to keep support under the live cattle market. Meanwhile, feeder cattle kept their upside move going on gains of as much as $6.00. November feeders look to have their sights set on at least the $340 target.
December hogs fell to losses of over $1.00 while ongoing negativity in the cash hog market limits any chances of strength. February and April hogs reached gains of $1.00 before backing off as deferred contracts attempt to claw out of their hole. If February hogs can close the gap on the chart with a move above $62.15, we might finally have something positive to talk about in the hog section of this report.
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