The Zhitong Finance App learned that Wanlian Securities released a research report saying that in the first three quarters of 2026, benefiting from stable net interest spreads and a high growth rate of non-interest income, the revenue growth rate continued to pick up. However, segmentation within the industry further intensified. Major state-owned banks and high-quality regional banks maintained their comparative advantage, and the net profit growth rate of some underprepared banks declined. Taking into account the current dividend rate and valuation level of bank stocks, the sector believes that the sector still has allocation value. First, it is preferable to select stable varieties; secondly, it can pay attention to the expected differences in high-quality regional banks and investment opportunities in undervalued stock banks.
The main views of Wanlian Securities are as follows:
incident
On November 11, 2026, the central bank released the “China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2026”.
The central bank pays more attention to interest rate reform and smooth policy transmission
The central bank emphasizes continuous optimization of short-term interest rate regulation mechanisms and unblocking channels for transmission of monetary policy. The period for the central bank's main types of operation in the open market was switched to overnight, and the capital interest rate center moved downward. In terms of promoting the reform of loan interest rate pricing benchmarks, the central bank emphasized that loan interest rates should shift from a single reference LPR pricing to more diverse pricing benchmarks, and explore variable interest rate loans linked to DR001. Furthermore, column 5, “Managing the Problem of Small and Medium Enterprises in Repayment,” points out that while some large enterprises have arrears on their accounts, exacerbate the problems of difficult and expensive financing, they also reduce the sensitivity of interest rates and affect the transmission of monetary policy.
Improving a number of structural monetary policy instruments
At the end of the third quarter, the central bank lowered the mortgage supplement loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.50%, included the “six networks” construction in the field of mortgage supplementary loan support, increased the reloan amount for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation by 200 billion yuan, and increased the amount of small reloans to support agriculture by 500 billion yuan. In column 4, “Improving the Adaptability of Financial Services and Supporting the Expansion and Quality of the Service Industry,” the added value of the service sector accounted for 57.7% of GDP in 2025, and the number of employed people accounted for 49.4% of the country's employed people. The central bank took the lead in issuing the “Guiding Opinions on Expanding the Capacity and Quality Improvement of the Financial Support Service Industry” to help expand the supply of high-quality services and unleash residents' consumption potential.
Continuing the “moderate easing” tone
In column 2, “Comparing International Interest Rates,” it is mentioned that interest rates on loans in China are already relatively low, and that falling interest rates on deposits can create room for lower interest rates on loans. Commercial banks themselves require a fixed deposit and loan interest spread to maintain their ability to support the real economy and operate steadily on their own. Pay attention to trending changes in subsequent deposit structures and costs.
Risk factors: The macroeconomic downturn and corporate solvency has declined beyond expectations, which has had a great impact on banks' asset quality; loose monetary policies have a negative impact on banks' net interest spreads; continued tightening of regulatory policies will also have a certain impact on the industry.