Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.22 per share on revenues of US$102m, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Aviat Networks from eight analysts is for revenues of US$461.7m in 2027. If met, it would imply a modest 6.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Aviat Networks is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$1.26 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$463.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.57 in 2027. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Aviat Networks
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$32.63, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Aviat Networks analyst has a price target of US$42.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$25.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 8.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 10% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 15% per year. So although Aviat Networks is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Aviat Networks. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Aviat Networks' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aviat Networks. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Aviat Networks analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Aviat Networks , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
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