Shareholders might have noticed that Velo3D, Inc. (NASDAQ:VELO) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.9% to US$4.41 in the past week. Revenues of US$20m beat expectations by a respectable 4.4%, although statutory losses per share increased. Velo3D lost US$0.52, which was 86% more than what the analysts had included in their models. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Velo3D from four analysts is for revenues of US$93.3m in 2027. If met, it would imply a sizeable 45% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 54% to US$0.80. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$92.1m and losses of US$0.69 per share in 2027. While next year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a noticeable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
Check out our latest analysis for Velo3D
With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 16% to US$19.50, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Velo3D, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$33.00 and the most bearish at US$10.00 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Velo3D is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 35% annualised growth until the end of 2027. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.6% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.8% per year. Not only are Velo3D's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Velo3D. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Velo3D's future valuation.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Velo3D going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Velo3D (2 are significant!) that you need to be mindful of.
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