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For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays. My next webinar will be Tuesday, November 17, 2026, at 3:15 pm. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.
The Cattle futures markets surged on Friday with the January Feeder Cattle settling up 3.675 and the February Live Cattle (which is now the lead contract as its volume has surpassed the December contract) settling up 1.85. Each market made a new high for the recent up move with Feeder Cattle peaking at 336.975 and live cattle peaking at 225.875 before dipping into the close. Feeder Cattle is leading the way as feeder cash prices have surged the past 2 days after making a low for the index on Tuesday for Monday settlement at 330.42. This has sparked speculative interest in the futures on the long side, in my opinion, driving futures higher the past couple of days when recent Thursday and Friday trades have been to the downside. So, this is a solid end to the week after last week’s debacle that sent futures lower with January Feeder Cattle coming within a hair of closing its gap from September 18th high at 312.00 to the September 21st low at 313.00 at its 312.05 low. The market rallied hard off that low on Friday putting in a bullish hammer candlestick that likely helped Feeder cash prices recover after futures put fear in cattle buyers at the end of last week. Fat cash prices haven’t received the same kind of lift this week as it seems they are still working off some heavy cattle that the packer has been leveraging to keep prices in the low end of its recent trading range. In my opinion, once these cattle are gone it is off to the races as there is sentiment out there that the packer will be seeing low cattle numbers in the foreseeable future. This could be why they upped slaughter again this week to 545,000 head. Take advantage of the low prices now and make money, because its likely the cutout won’t keep up with the cash price increases need to buy cattle to get ready for the Christmas holiday seasonal. The Cattle on Feed reports have been showing lower placements for quite a while now and we are going to see that aspect reflected soon, in my opinion. There is also talk that the beef/ Dairy cross has been instrumental in keeping cattle supply somewhat stable as they now make up approximately 25% of the total in feedlots. It can be said that the reason they make up that much of the cattle in feedlots is because the number of beef cattle are down significantly and their numbers have basically remained the same giving the cross a bigger share of the feedlot. Sources say that those numbers aren’t increasing all that much because it would crush the milk market and that is something dairy farmers wouldn’t want. They also produce steers for the cross and that could be skewing the heifer percentages in the feedlot and slaughter numbers, in my opinion. Heavier weights have been helpful in producing more beef with less cattle slaughtered but it is not enough to meet the needs of the consumer that continue to favor beef over other forms of protein, hence in my opinion higher prices. Record imports have been necessary to meet the needs of the consumer. It has been the political nonsense that has created price issues in my opinion. I think those days are over and fundamentals will take over as we head to the holidays. Also, the screwworm is here and not going away. It hasn’t really impacted the movement of cattle. Cattle are coming over the border and they (from what my customers tell me) haven’t been cheap. Cattle imported will improve the supply situation to a degree, depending on whether they go to grass or the feedlot right away. Will they just be a replacement for heifer retention? Will they shut down the border? I think the only way the border shuts down is if we see cattle coming into the ports with the screwworm. Otherwise, the ports will likely stay open. We’ll see!... January Feeder Cattle made its low at 329.525 which tested support at the declining 13-DMA now at 329.825. The rally stalled just below resistance at the declining 100-DMA now at 337.65. Settlement was at 335.35 which is just above the declining 21-DMA now at 335.25. If price can overtake the 100-DMA, it could test resistance at 341.05. Resistance then comes in at 344.675. A failure from settlement could see price test support at the rising 50-DMA now at 333.55. Support then comes in at 332.05. December Live Cattle made its low at 221.45. This tested support at the rising 50-DMA now at 222.55. The rally stalled just below resistance at 226.60. It settled at 224.80. Settlement was above the key level at 224.55. If settlement holds, price could test resistance at 226.60. Resistance then comes in at 230.425. A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at the 50-DMA. Support then comes in at 220.05.
The Feeder Cattle Index surged and is at 338.78 as of 11/12/2026 settlement.
Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 1.95 to 355.64 and select increased 0.44 to 349.15. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 6.49 and the load count was 92.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 106,000, which is above last week’s 93,000 and last year’s 94,081. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 4,000, which is below last week’s 11,000 and last year’s 10,193. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 545,000, which is above last week’s 534,000 and below last year’s 575,759.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been light to moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska. Compared to last week in Nebraska dressed purchases have been 2.00 lower from 335.00-340.00, mostly 338.00. The last established live market test in Nebraska was last week from 210.00-219.00, mostly 216.00-218.00. Negotiated cash trade in the Western Cornbelt has been limited on light demand. There have been a few live purchases at 212.00 and a few dressed purchases at 338.00, however not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was last week with live purchases from 210.00-218.00 and dressed purchases from 330.00-345.00, mostly 340.00. In the South Central Region negotiated cash trade has been inactive on light demand. The last established live market test in the South Central Region was last week at mostly 218.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 210.00 – 216.00 and from 32530.00 – 340.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
Trade Strategy:
February 2027 Live Cattle Options Strategy
Sell the February 2027 Live Cattle 260/240 put spread at 18 cents.
- Premium collected: $7,200, less commissions and fees
- Maximum risk: $800, plus commissions and fees
- Margin requirement: $1,081
- Risk management: Consider limiting risk to 100 points ($400) plus commissions and fees
- Profit objective: Work a bid to buy back the spread at 11 cents
- Potential gain: Approximately $2,800, less commissions and fees
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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