Down 20% this year, are Whitehaven Coal Shares a buy, hold or sell according to Macquarie?

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) engages in the development and operation of coal mines. It operates six mines across NSW and QLD, producing metallurgical coal that's critical for steelmaking and thermal coal.

It has endured a tough year to date, falling 21.34% since the start of 2025 and more than 35% in the last 12 months. 

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) is down roughly 17% since the start of 2025 and 28.16% over the past year. 

Coal mining companies and energy shares have had a rough start to the year in general on the back of weak commodity prices and tariff uncertainty.

What is Macquarie saying about Whitehaven Coal?

In a report released this week by Macquarie, the broker said the dividend could be under pressure due to negative EPS projections for 2HFY25. 

According to Macquarie, one positive from the company is that: 

Despite wet weather across NSW and QLD, WHC beat consensus in QLD in both ROM and Saleable Coal (SP) (+7%/ +11%) and NSW (+17%/+24%). Blackwater was the key performer, beating consensus +11%/+17% on ROM/SP.

However, there were some negative results out of Whitehaven's Queensland locations. 

QLD realised pricing again missed our estimates with our lagged pricing formula (~3 months) implying low-80% realisations vs 77% actual, which eroded the solid sales result.

The result of the report was a "neutral" rating on the company and a 12-month price target of $5.50.

Based on the current share price of $4.94, this price target implies a 11.34% upside. 

What are other brokers saying?

Earlier this month, Goldman took off its buy rating on Whitehaven Coal shares and downgraded them to neutral with a $5.70 price target.

A report from broker Bell Potter earlier this month had a more optimistic view on the future of Whitehaven Coal shares. The broker said: 

WHC's balance sheet has significantly de-risked and its Queensland operational outlook continues to strengthen, ensuring greater resilience to withstand current weaker coal markets. We have a positive long-term met coal outlook and see an increasingly consolidated supply base.

The Bell Potter price target is currently $7.40. 

Online brokerage platform SelfWealth sits between with an average price target of $6.60.

The post Down 20% this year, are Whitehaven Coal Shares a buy, hold or sell according to Macquarie? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Motley Fool's purpose is to help the world invest, better. Click here now for your free subscription to Take Stock, The Motley Fool's free investing newsletter. Packed with stock ideas and investing advice, it is essential reading for anyone looking to build and grow their wealth in the years ahead. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson. 2025