Broker reveals outlook for ASX dividend shares amid volatile market

ASX shares were volatile last month amid harsher-than-expected US reciprocal tariffs and company earnings downgrades.

Broker Macquarie said there was a 16% decline in net FY25 earnings per share (EPS) revisions for ASX shares in April.

The broker expects net negative updates from many companies this week at the Macquarie Conference.

So, how do you maintain dividend income in such a volatile market?

Peter Gardner from Plato Investment Management offers some advice in a blog published on asx.com.au.

Outlook for ASX dividend shares

Gardner says recent market events show a 'set-and-forget' approach to ASX dividend income doesn't work.

He commented:

Amid all the noise about Trump, tariffs and market turbulence, the big challenge for income investors in Australia is knowing where to move to get dividends and franking credits. 

Gardner says ASX shares "still have the potential to generate superior income when compared to term deposits and fixed income". 

The median dividend increase across the ASX during the February earnings season was 5%, according to internal Plato research.

This means most companies increased their dividends by more than inflation. 

Gardner says this provides a solid foundation for the outlook on ASX dividend shares for the rest of 2025.

Broker still positive on ASX mining shares despite dividend cuts

Although BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO), and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) announced lower dividends in February, Gardner says the mining giants should remain high-yielding ASX dividend shares.

He said the dividend cuts followed very large dividends and special dividends from the miners in recent years. 

He commented:

The dividend bonanza from the miners lasted much longer than many experts anticipated. 

Resource dividends have now cooled in line with the declining price of iron ore.

According to CommSec, the consensus forecast for BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue's 2025 annual dividends is as follows:

• BHP shares — $1.726 per share (a 4.55% yield based on the current share price of $37.92)
• Rio Tinto shares — $4.405 per share (a 3.77% yield based on the current share price of $116.69)
• Fortescue shares — $1.128 per share (a 7.1% yield based on the current share price of $15.97)

Gardner said Plato remains positive on the more diversified miners, Rio Tinto and BHP, for ASX dividend income this year.

Remember, dividend yields go up when prices fall 

Gardner said the tariff-inspired market sell-off in early April allowed investors to stock up on quality ASX dividend shares at a cheaper price.

Amid today's turbulence, Plato thinks domestic ASX telcos, consumer staples, and financial shares will provide the best dividend income.

He said:

For example, Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) reported a strong half-year profit increase of 7.1% (vs the prior corresponding period) in February.

In Plato's view this was driven by increasing mobile revenues as Telstra continues to strengthen its dominance as Australia's leading telco.

Investors were rewarded with a 5% interim dividend increase, and they're now getting an annual gross yield of around 6.5%.  

In the consumer staples sector, Gardner says Plato "is likely to remain positive" on the dividend outlook for Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL).

He also commented:

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH), is also interestingly positioned, in Plato's view.

We consider JBH a bit more of a consumer staple these days, as people can't just cut back on things like home office electronics and mobile devices which have become a critical part of our personal and working lives. 

JBH was able to increase half-year sales by almost 10%, increase profits by 8%, and noted strong January sales in its February results. It announced an 8% dividend increase.

The post Broker reveals outlook for ASX dividend shares amid volatile market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group, Macquarie Group, and Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group and Jb Hi-Fi. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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