-+ 0.00%
-+ 0.00%
-+ 0.00%

Assessing Alexander & Baldwin’s Valuation After Raised Guidance and Strategic Acquisition Signals

Simply Wall St·11/10/2025 12:29:13
Listen to the news

Alexander & Baldwin (NYSE:ALEX) just released its third quarter numbers. Despite lower revenue and net income compared to last year, the company surprised investors by raising its full-year earnings guidance. Management also signaled a focus on potential acquisitions, giving investors more to consider.

See our latest analysis for Alexander & Baldwin.

With the latest earnings behind us and the search for fresh acquisitions underway, Alexander & Baldwin’s share price closed at $15.52, notching a 6.3% decline over the past month and down 12% year-to-date. Although momentum has faded lately, the longer-term story reveals a more resilient picture. Total shareholder return over five years stands at nearly 22%, which underscores the company’s capacity to weather industry cycles. This comes even as the market recalibrates its expectations in light of recent results and new debt facilities.

If this shift in momentum has you scanning for your next move, now’s the perfect time to expand your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With fundamentals sending mixed signals and shares trading at a notable discount to analyst targets, the question now is whether Alexander & Baldwin’s recent dip offers a buying opportunity or if the market is already considering future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 27% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, Alexander & Baldwin’s fair value is set at $21.25, a significant premium to its last close at $15.52. This sizable gap reflects optimism about the company’s unique position in Hawaii's real estate market and its capacity to drive long-term value, even as the future brings clear economic headwinds.

Hawaii's persistent population growth, urbanization, and tight land-use restrictions continue to drive high occupancy (Q2 portfolio occupancy ~95.8%) and steady rental growth. This creates a durable competitive advantage as demand outpaces supply, supporting ongoing revenue and net operating income (NOI) growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s fueling such a high premium? The fair value hinges on bold projections for future profit margins and an earnings multiple that eclipses industry norms. You won’t believe which assumptions underpin this target. Click through to see the surprising financial blueprint analysts use to justify a price well above the current market level.

Result: Fair Value of $21.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, continued reliance on Hawaii’s tourism sector and increasing redevelopment costs could present challenges to the optimistic outlook and may potentially limit future returns.

Find out about the key risks to this Alexander & Baldwin narrative.

Build Your Own Alexander & Baldwin Narrative

If you have a different viewpoint on Alexander & Baldwin or prefer to follow your own analysis, it only takes a few minutes to assemble your perspective. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Alexander & Baldwin research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Smart investors never limit themselves to one story. Level up your portfolio by acting now and tapping into high-potential stocks chosen by proven data models.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.