Does Greif’s (GEF) Potential $150 Million Buyback Reflect Shifting Priorities in Capital Allocation?

• On November 10, 2025, Greif announced that its Board of Directors would consider a share repurchase program that could authorize up to US$150 million in buybacks of up to 2.5 million common shares.
• Such a potential buyback consideration often signals management’s confidence and can be perceived by investors as a move to increase shareholder value.
• We’ll now explore how Greif’s consideration of a US$150 million share repurchase could influence its overall investment narrative and outlook.

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Greif Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Greif, you need conviction in its repositioning toward higher-value packaging markets, while accepting rising exposure to cyclical demand shifts following recent divestitures. The Board's consideration of a US$150 million share repurchase aligns with management's capital-return mindset, but does not materially shift the immediate narrative; the big short-term catalyst remains recovery in core end-market volumes, while the principal risk persists around execution in more volatile core markets after exiting containerboard.

The August 6, 2025 announcement of the sale of the Soterra land management business for US$462 million is highly relevant, as it substantially strengthened Greif's balance sheet and enabled flexibility for share buybacks. While this proceeds-to-buybacks link is clear, ongoing volume softness in key industrial and packaging segments still represents the biggest near-term uncertainty to sustained performance.

However, investors should also be aware that containerboard divestment increases Greif's exposure to more cyclical packaging markets...

Read the full narrative on Greif (it's free!)

Greif's outlook anticipates $4.0 billion in revenue and $327.0 million in earnings by 2028. This reflects a 9.4% annual revenue decline and an increase of $186.3 million in earnings from the current $140.7 million.

Uncover how Greif's forecasts yield a $72.60 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community show a wide range from US$45.64 to US$243.84, reflecting differing future growth views. This diversity underscores how increased exposure to cyclical packaging volumes can lead to varying performance outcomes and risk perceptions among market participants.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Greif - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Greif Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Greif research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Greif research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Greif's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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