Knight-Swift (KNX): Revisiting Valuation After Q3 Earnings Miss and Cautious Outlook
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) just posted its third-quarter 2025 earnings, coming in below market expectations and last year's figures. The company also issued a cautious outlook for the upcoming quarter, signaling some continued challenges.
See our latest analysis for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings.
After a choppy few months, Knight-Swift’s share price has slipped about 16% year-to-date and its total shareholder return over the past year is down more than 23%, reflecting fading momentum as earnings and investor sentiment have softened since early 2024. While there has been a recent one-week rebound, the longer-term three-year total shareholder return remains negative, which highlights continued caution around near-term recovery.
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With shares trading about 20% below analyst price targets after a disappointing run, investors may wonder whether Knight-Swift is undervalued or if the current price simply reflects more cautious market expectations for future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 17.1% Undervalued
With Knight-Swift’s widely-followed narrative seeing a fair value of $53.58 per share versus a last close of $44.41, the stock’s current price sits at a notable discount to consensus expectations, fueling debate on whether this gap reflects opportunity or ongoing market caution. Within this backdrop, the stage is set for big swings in sentiment as the next earnings cycle approaches.
Industry consolidation and persistent capacity exit among smaller fleets are tightening the supply/demand equilibrium. This enables Knight-Swift to leverage its scale for better pricing power and market share gains, ultimately benefiting both top-line growth and net margins.
Wondering what’s behind such a high conviction price target? The most watched narrative leans on bold expansion assumptions and profit leaps not often seen in this sector. What financial trends and catalysts are baked into this view? Dive in to see the numbers and logic that could signal either a deep value play or just wishful thinking.
Result: Fair Value of $53.58 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, persistent integration costs from recent acquisitions and ongoing soft freight demand could easily delay the anticipated turnaround in Knight-Swift's growth story.
Find out about the key risks to this Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings narrative.
Another View: High Multiples Signal Caution
While analyst fair values suggest Knight-Swift is undervalued, a look at the company’s current price-to-earnings ratio tells another story. At 50.7 times earnings, Knight-Swift trades much higher than both its industry peers (26.6x) and its own fair ratio of 24.1x. This raises fresh questions about whether the stock’s real upside is already priced in or if investors are overlooking risk.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Build Your Own Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Narrative
If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build your own Knight-Swift story in just a few minutes, your way. Do it your way
A great starting point for your Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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