A Look at H World Group's (NasdaqGS:HTHT) Valuation After Latest Earnings and Upbeat Revenue Forecast
H World Group (NasdaqGS:HTHT) just released its latest nine-month earnings, reporting higher revenue and net income compared to a year ago. The company also shared updated guidance for revenue growth in the upcoming quarter.
See our latest analysis for H World Group.
Backed by a fresh string of upbeat results and a new revenue growth forecast, H World Group’s momentum has clearly intensified. This is reflected in a 19.4% one-month share price return and a 47.3% total shareholder return over the past year. All signals point to building optimism as the market takes stock of stronger fundamentals and renewed growth expectations.
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Yet with shares now up over 47% in the past year, investors may be wondering if H World Group still has room to run or if all the recent momentum means future growth is already priced in.
Most Popular Narrative: 6.8% Undervalued
With H World Group’s most widely cited narrative fair value set at $49.47, the stock’s last close of $46.10 is nearly 7% below analysts’ collective estimate. This suggests that, despite robust recent gains, further upside may still be on the table as the market weighs fresh momentum against ongoing sector challenges.
The ongoing expansion into lower-tier cities and network growth, despite short-term RevPAR pressure and a challenging macro backdrop, positions H World Group to capitalize on rising domestic travel fueled by urbanization and an expanding middle class. This supports robust top-line revenue growth as the economic environment normalizes.
Want to crack the code behind why analysts have bumped up their fair value? The secret is embedded in a set of bullish growth assumptions, including aggressive expansion, bigger margins, and an ambitious earnings trajectory. Can these numbers hold up? Check the full story to reveal what’s powering the optimism behind these projections.
Result: Fair Value of $49.47 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, persistent pressure on RevPAR and the risk of overexpansion into lower-tier cities could still challenge H World Group’s positive momentum in coming quarters.
Find out about the key risks to this H World Group narrative.
Another View: Market Ratios Raise New Questions
While analyst fair value points to upside, a closer look at H World Group's current earnings multiple tells a different story. Shares trade at 25.4 times earnings, higher than both the US hospitality industry average of 21.4 and the fair ratio of 24.7. This premium suggests optimism but may also leave little margin for disappointment. How much further can the stock stretch its valuation?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Build Your Own H World Group Narrative
If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can easily shape your own take in just a few minutes. Do it your way
A great starting point for your H World Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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