What does Macquarie think Corporate Travel Management shares are worth?

Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) shares have been out of action for some time now.

Unfortunately, it looks like they will remain suspended until at least the end of the year.

When they do return to action, should you be buying them? Let's see what Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is saying about the corporate travel specialist.

What is the broker saying about Corporate Travel Management shares?

Macquarie notes that a forensic review of the company's accounts is taking place. So far, it has found significant items that will need to be refunded to certain customers. As it is unknown just how much will need to be refunded, the broker points out that there are risks to consider. It said:

Refunds. CTD has begun reviewing impacted customers to determine refund amounts for Concluded Customer Contracts, with the process ongoing into 2026 and no amount specified yet.

Cash impact. The cash impact of refunds and prior year adjustments is still unquantified and remains a downside risk to future earnings and valuation. As of 31-Oct-25, CTD's cash is >A$148.3m (including A$18.2m restricted), with no debt drawn.

There are also significant restatements that will be undertaken. It said:

Significant restatements are required to reverse up to £58.2m of previously recognised revenue for Concluded Customer Contracts in FY23-24, also resulting in financial liabilities for any customer refunds.

FY25 impact. FY25 revenue reversal adjustments of up to £19.4m are expected due to refunds and contractual uncertainty, with previous FY25 guidance from May-25 now withdrawn. CTD will also book additional provisions of A$13.9m in FY25 for expected credit losses on 2022-24 ANZ receivables (unrelated to European issues).

Should you invest?

In light of the above, the broker has downgraded Corporate Travel Management shares to an underperform rating with a heavily reduced price target of $11.50.

Based on its last traded price of $16.07, this implies potential downside of 28% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its downgrade, Macquarie said:

Today's new details significantly increase uncertainty about the impact of accounting issues and customer overcharging on CTD's operations, which we need to reflect in our val. and rec., hence we downgrade to Underperform (from Neutral).

Catalysts: Finalisation of review & accounts, reinstated to ASX, customer retention. Downside risks: potential ASX 200 removal, loss of existing customers & tenders, higher cash outflows, extra costs post review.

The post What does Macquarie think Corporate Travel Management shares are worth? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Corporate Travel Management and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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