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Does Leerink’s Upgrade of Certara (CERT) Reveal a Deeper Edge in Biosimulation-Driven Drug Development?

Simply Wall St·01/10/2026 13:23:46
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  • Earlier this week, Leerink Partners upgraded Certara to an “Outperform” rating, highlighting renewed confidence in the company’s biosimulation and technology-enabled drug development services.
  • This shift in analyst sentiment comes after a period of more cautious views, underscoring how differentiated biosimulation capabilities can influence institutional perspectives on Certara’s role in modern drug R&D.
  • Now we’ll examine how Leerink’s upgraded outlook on Certara’s biosimulation franchise may influence the company’s existing investment narrative.

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Certara Investment Narrative Recap

To own Certara, you need to believe that biosimulation and model informed drug development become embedded in mainstream R&D workflows, and that the company can translate its software and services into durable, profitable growth. Leerink’s upgrade reinforces that longer term thesis, but it does not materially change the key near term catalyst, which is execution on its AI enabled platform rollout, or the biggest risk, which remains pharma customers tightening or delaying R&D spending.

The most relevant recent development alongside this upgrade is Certara’s reiterated 2025 revenue outlook of US$415 million to US$420 million, which anchors expectations around how quickly its qualified Simcyp platform and broader biosimulation suite are being adopted. Together, the steady guidance and the renewed analyst optimism frame a simple question for investors: can expanding regulatory recognition and new AI products overcome cyclical pressure on pharma budgets and justify Certara’s premium multiples over time?

Yet behind the optimism, investors should be aware of how sensitive Certara still is to large pharma customers potentially delaying...

Read the full narrative on Certara (it's free!)

Certara's narrative projects $519.5 million revenue and $7.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 8.6% yearly revenue growth and a $0.6 million earnings decrease from $8.0 million today.

Uncover how Certara's forecasts yield a $12.38 fair value, a 33% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

CERT 1-Year Stock Price Chart
CERT 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Certara span about US$9 to roughly US$21 per share, highlighting how far apart individual views can be. As you weigh those opinions against the upgraded sentiment around Certara’s biosimulation franchise and the risk of slower pharma R&D spending, it becomes even more important to explore several alternative viewpoints before forming your own stance.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Certara - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Certara Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.