Investors five-year losses continue as Emergent BioSolutions (NYSE:EBS) dips a further 7.5% this week, earnings continue to decline
While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (NYSE:EBS) share price up 27% in a single quarter. But will that heal all the wounds inflicted over 5 years of declines? Unlikely. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 89% in that time. It's true that the recent bounce could signal the company is turning over a new leaf, but we are not so sure. The real question is whether the business can leave its past behind and improve itself over the years ahead. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
With the stock having lost 7.5% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Emergent BioSolutions became profitable within the last five years. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.
It could be that the revenue decline of 14% per year is viewed as evidence that Emergent BioSolutions is shrinking. That could explain the weak share price.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Emergent BioSolutions
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Emergent BioSolutions has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 30% in the last twelve months. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 14% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Emergent BioSolutions has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.