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A Look At RealReal (REAL) Valuation As Athena Targets Faster Luxury Resale Operations

Simply Wall St·01/24/2026 11:30:06
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How Athena could matter for RealReal stock

The RealReal (REAL) recently rolled out its Athena system, a technology that helps validate luxury goods and shorten the time from item drop off to online listing. This development has put operational efficiency in sharper focus for investors.

See our latest analysis for RealReal.

Despite the Athena launch sharpening the focus on efficiency, RealReal’s recent share price performance has been mixed, with a 7 day share price return of 8.26% and a 90 day share price return of 25.89%, alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of 60.72% and a very large 3 year total shareholder return near 8x. This suggests earlier momentum has been strong even if short term sentiment has cooled at the latest share price of $15.22.

If Athena has you rethinking where technology and resale could go next, it might be a good moment to look at high growth tech and AI stocks as potential ideas to research further.

With Athena now in the mix, you are looking at a business with a 3 year return near 8x, recent share price weakness and a small discount to analyst targets. The key question is whether there is still a buying opportunity here or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 1% Overvalued

RealReal’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $15.13, which sits just under the recent $15.22 close, so the gap is narrow but worth understanding.

Continuous investment in AI driven automation (Athena and other initiatives) is delivering ongoing reductions in processing costs per unit and streamlining authentication, enabling scalable operational efficiencies that lower unit costs and support sustained margin expansion and improved EBITDA.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a resale marketplace with current losses earns a double digit discount rate and a premium future earnings multiple in this narrative? The answer sits in a specific mix of projected revenue growth, margin lift and share count changes that all have to work together. If you want to see exactly how those moving parts combine to reach that fair value, the full story is worth a read.

Result: Fair Value of $15.13 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still pressure points, such as slower than hoped efficiency gains from Athena and a declining take rate as higher ticket items reshape the commission mix.

Find out about the key risks to this RealReal narrative.

Build Your Own RealReal Narrative

If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom view of RealReal in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your RealReal research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.