Is NCR Voyix (VYX) A Hidden Opportunity After Recent Share Price Recovery?
- If you are wondering whether NCR Voyix at around US$10.50 is a value opportunity or a value trap, you are not alone.
- The stock is up 6.5% year to date, but its 1 year return of 17.0% and 5 year return of 50.7% show that recent strength follows a much tougher longer term share price record.
- Recent coverage has focused on NCR Voyix as a standalone software and services business following the separation of NCR into two listed entities. This has shifted attention to how the market prices its payments, retail and banking technology operations. That backdrop helps explain why some investors are reassessing both the risks and potential upside in the current share price.
- On Simply Wall St’s valuation checks, NCR Voyix scores a perfect 6 out of 6. Next we will look at what that means across different valuation methods and hint at a way to go beyond the headline numbers by the end of this article.
Find out why NCR Voyix's -17.0% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
Approach 1: NCR Voyix Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes projected future cash flows and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return, aiming to estimate what the business may be worth right now.
For NCR Voyix, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $799.76 million, so the story here is less about current cash generation and more about what analysts and extrapolated estimates suggest for the next decade.
Analyst data and Simply Wall St’s extrapolated projections point to free cash flow of $205 million in 2026 and $230 million in 2027, rising to an estimated $346.63 million in 2035. All of these figures are in $ and remain comfortably below $1b.
Discounting these cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of about $23.18 per share. Against a current share price around $10.50, the model implies a 54.7% discount, which indicates that the shares appear undervalued on this DCF view alone.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests NCR Voyix is undervalued by 54.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 887 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
Approach 2: NCR Voyix Price vs Sales
For companies where profits are limited or volatile, the P/S ratio is often more useful than P/E, because it compares the share price to revenue rather than earnings that can swing around a lot from year to year.
What investors usually pay on a P/S basis is influenced by how quickly a company is expected to grow its revenue and how risky that growth looks. Higher growth and lower perceived risk can support a higher P/S multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty generally points to a lower, more cautious multiple.
NCR Voyix currently trades on a P/S of 0.55x. That sits well below the Software industry average P/S of 4.72x and also below the peer group average of 3.47x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for NCR Voyix is 0.77x, which is its proprietary estimate of what a reasonable P/S multiple could be given factors like growth outlook, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks.
This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple industry or peer comparison because it adjusts for the company’s own characteristics rather than assuming it should look like the average Software stock.
With the current P/S at 0.55x compared to a Fair Ratio of 0.77x, NCR Voyix appears undervalued on this P/S view.
Result: UNDERVALUED
P/S ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1427 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your NCR Voyix Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about a company linked directly to the numbers you think are realistic for its future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value.
With a Narrative, you connect what you believe about NCR Voyix, such as how its payments, retail and banking technology businesses might perform, into a financial forecast and then into a fair value that you can compare to today’s share price.
Narratives on Simply Wall St, available to you on the Community page used by millions of investors, are designed to be easy. You adjust a few key assumptions, see how that feeds into fair value and then quickly check whether your view suggests the stock is expensive or cheap relative to the current price.
Because Narratives update automatically when new information like earnings or news is added, you can see how different investors respond. For example, one NCR Voyix Narrative could assume a much higher fair value with stronger revenue growth and margins, while another could reflect a lower fair value with more cautious expectations and a higher discount rate.
Do you think there's more to the story for NCR Voyix? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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