Assessing Venture Global (VG) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum And LNG Growth Expectations
Event context and recent stock performance
Venture Global (VG) has been on investors’ radar after recent trading saw the stock move to a last close of US$9.80, with a 1 day return of 1.34% and a past month return of 39.20%.
See our latest analysis for Venture Global.
Looking beyond the latest move to US$9.80, the 30 day share price return of 39.20% and 90 day return of 17.22% sit against a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 51.75%. This suggests recent momentum has picked up after a weaker stretch.
If this kind of rebound has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other ideas showing strong interest and insider backing.
So with Venture Global trading at US$9.80, at a discount to the US$11.78 analyst price target and showing an intrinsic discount signal, are you looking at an undervalued LNG player or a stock that already reflects expectations of future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 20.1% Undervalued
At a last close of $9.80 versus a most followed fair value estimate of $12.26, Venture Global is framed as trading at a meaningful discount, with that gap built on specific growth and margin expectations rather than sentiment alone.
Rapid ramp up of Plaquemines and CP2 production, with proven ability to operate meaningfully above nameplate capacity, should drive sustained volume growth and materially higher revenue and EBITDA as additional trains reach COD.
To understand what is reflected in that growth story, the narrative focuses on rising LNG volumes, shifting margins and a richer earnings multiple. Curious which assumptions really carry the $12.26 fair value tag and how they compare over the next few years? The full narrative lays out the numbers behind that 20.1% discount call.
Result: Fair Value of $12.26 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this story can change quickly if LNG spreads compress as new projects start up, or if Calcasieu Pass arbitration outcomes absorb more cash than expected.
Find out about the key risks to this Venture Global narrative.
Build Your Own Venture Global Narrative
If you see the numbers differently or just like testing your own view against the market, you can build a custom Venture Global story in a few minutes using Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Venture Global research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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